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The Pentagon's Secret Plans to Secure Pakistan's Nuclear Arsenal

Wednesday, Nov. 9, 2011
By Jeffrey Goldberg and Marc Ambinder
National Journal
By hiding its nuclear weapons from Washington, Pakistan has made them much more vulnerable to jihadists. In response, the Pentagon has devised secret plans to secure the Pakistani arsenal -- by force if necessary (see GSN, Nov. 8).
 A Pakistani nuclear-capable Ghauri missile lifts off in a 2008 trial. The United States has developed an undisclosed blueprint for securing Pakistan's nuclear weapons against extremists, potentially by force (AP Photo/Interservices Public Relations).
Shortly after Navy SEALs raided the Pakistani city of Abbottabad in May and killed Osama bin Laden, Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, the Pakistani chief of army staff, spoke with Khalid Kidwai, the retired lieutenant general in charge of securing Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. Kidwai, who commands a security apparatus called the Strategic Plans Division, had been expecting Kayani’s call.
Kayani, the most powerful man in a country that has only a simulacrum of civilian leadership, had been busy in the tense days that followed the bin Laden raid: He had to assure his American funders (U.S. taxpayers provide more than $2 billion in annual subsidies to the Pakistani military) that the army had no prior knowledge of bin Laden’s hideout, located less than a mile from Pakistan’s preeminent military academy; and at the same time he had to subdue the uproar within his ranks over what was seen as a flagrant violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty by an arrogant Barack Obama. But he was also anxious about the safety of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons, and he found time to express this worry to Kidwai.
Much of the world, of course, is anxious about the security of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons, and for good reason: Pakistan is an unstable country located at the epicenter of global jihadism, and it has been the foremost supplier of nuclear technology to such rogue states as Iran and North Korea. “The single biggest threat to U.S. security, both short term, medium term, and long term, would be the possibility of a terrorist organization obtaining a nuclear weapon,” President Obama said last year at an international nuclear-security meeting in Washington. Al‑Qaeda, Obama said, is “trying to secure a nuclear weapon -- a weapon of mass destruction that they have no compunction at using.”
Pakistan would be an obvious place for a jihadist organization to seek a nuclear weapon or fissile material: It is the only Muslim-majority state, out of the 50 or so in the world, to have successfully developed nuclear weapons. Its central government has serious trouble controlling the many corners of its territory. Its security services are infiltrated by an unknown number of jihadist sympathizers; a number of jihadist organizations are headquartered there and have relations with the government. And the weapons are stored on bases and in facilities spread across the country -- possibly including one within several miles of Abbottabad, a city that, in addition to having hosted bin Laden, is home to many partisans of the jihadist group Harakat-ul-Mujahideen.
“There are three threats,” says Graham Allison, an expert on nuclear weapons who directs the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard. The first is “a terrorist theft of a nuclear weapon, which they take to Mumbai or New York for a nuclear 9/11. The second is a transfer of a nuclear weapon to a state like Iran. The third is a takeover of nuclear weapons by a militant group during a period of instability or splintering of the state.”
Pakistani officials adamantly defend the safety of their nuclear program. In times of relative quiet between Pakistan and India (the country that would be the target of a Pakistani nuclear attack), they say that their weapons are “de‑mated” -- meaning that the warheads are kept separate from their fissile cores and their delivery systems. This makes stealing, or launching, a complete nuclear weapon far more difficult. In an interview this summer in Islamabad, a senior official of the Inter-Services Intelligence directorate, the Pakistani military’s spy agency, told National Journal that U.S. fears about the safety of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons were entirely unfounded. “Of all the things in the world to worry about, the issue you should worry about the least is the safety of our nuclear program,” the official said. “It is completely secure.” He went on to say, “It is in our interest to keep our bases safe as well. You must trust us that we have maximum and impenetrable security. No one with ill intent can get near our strategic assets.”
Like many statements made by Pakistan’s leaders, this one contained large elements of deceit. Militants have already targeted at least six facilities widely believed to be associated with Pakistan’s nuclear program. To hide weapons from the prying satellite eyes of the United States, Pakistan moves warheads around in unmarked vans with low security profiles down busy roads. In fact, Pakistanis see jihadists as less threatening than Washington, which they believe wants to seize their nuclear weapons. After the Abbottabad mission, Kayani wanted to know what additional steps Kidwai was taking to prevent an American raid on their nuclear arsenal. Kidwai promised to redouble efforts to keep his country’s weapons far from the long arms of the Americans.
What that means, in essence, is this: In a country that is home to Muslim fundamentalist groups -- al‑Qaeda, the Haqqani network, and Lashkar-e-Taiba (which conducted the Mumbai raid that killed nearly 200 civilians in 2008) -- nuclear bombs capable of destroying entire cities are transported in delivery vans on congested and dangerous roads. And Pakistani and U.S. sources say that since the raid on Abbotta­bad, the Pakistanis have increased the pace of these movements. In other words, the Pakistani government is willing to make its nuclear weapons more vulnerable to theft by jihadists simply to hide them from the United States, the country that funds much of its military budget. In response, the Pentagon has devised secret plans to secure Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, amplifying Pakistani fears.
Loose Nukes
It is true that the Strategic Plans Division is considered to be a highly professional organization, at least by Pakistani-government standards of professionalism. Kidwai, its leader, is well regarded by Western nuclear-security experts, and the soldiers and civilians he leads are said by Pakistani spokesmen to be screened rigorously for their probity and competence, and for signs of political or religious immoderation. The SPD, Pakistani officials say, keeps careful watch over behavioral changes in its personnel; employees are investigated thoroughly for ties to extremists or radical mosques, and for changes in their lifestyle and income. The SPD is also believed to maintain “dummy” storage sites to divert attention from active ones.
Pakistani spokesmen say that the SPD is vigilant in its monitoring of the civilian scientists working in the country’s nuclear complexes. There are as many as 9,000 of them, including at least 2,000 who possess “critical knowledge” of weapons manufacture and maintenance, according to two sources in Pakistan. The watchfulness was deemed necessary after disclosures that two retired Pakistani nuclear scientists with pronounced jihadist sympathies had met with bin Laden in the summer of 2001. “I think it’s overstated that the weapons can get into bad hands,” Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan’s former president, who created the SPD, told National Journal.
But some U.S. intelligence experts aren’t so sure. First, there is the simple matter of competence. When Navy SEALs penetrated Pakistani air defenses, landed in helicopters streets away from a prestigious military academy, killed the most-wanted fugitive in modern history, and then departed, the Pakistani military was oblivious for the duration. Pervasive derision followed. A popular text message in the days after the raid read, “If you honk your horn, do so lightly, because the Pakistani army is asleep.”
Americans also question Pakistan’s nuclear vigilance. Thomas Fingar, a former chairman of the National Intelligence Council under President George W. Bush, said it is logical that any nuclear-weapons state would budget the resources necessary to protect its arsenal -- but that “we do not know that this is the case in Pakistan.” The key concern, Fingar says, is that “we do not know if what the military has done is adequate to protect the weapons from insider threats, or if key military units have been penetrated by extremists. We hope the weapons are safe, but we may be whistling past the graveyard.”
Some near misses have already occurred. In November 2007, a suicide bomber attacked a bus carrying workers to the Sargodha air base, which is believed to house nuclear weapons. The following month, a school bus was attacked outside Kamra air base, which may also serve as a nuclear storage site. In August 2008, Pakistani Taliban suicide bombers attacked what experts believe is the country’s main nuclear-weapons assembly depot in Wah cantonment. Recently, militants invaded a major Pakistani naval base near Karachi, blowing up two P‑3C Orion surveillance planes and killing at least 10 people. Pakistani security forces required 15 hours to regain control of the base. In a series of interviews, several Pakistani officials told National Journal that investigators suspect the militants had help inside the complex. Experts believe that nuclear-weapon components were stored nearby.
Pakistani leaders say their military and security organizations are immune to radical influence. “I have seen no significant radicalization of any of our men in uniform,” said the Inter-Services Intelligence senior official National Journal interviewed in Islamabad. “This is simply a lie.” But the evidence suggests otherwise. Sympathy for jihadist-oriented groups among at least some Pakistani military men has been acknowledged for years, even inside Pakistan; recently a brigadier, Ali Khan, was arrested on charges of maintaining contact with a banned extremist organization. A retired Pakistani general with intelligence experience says, “Different aspects of the military and security services have different levels of sympathy for the extremists. The navy is high in sympathy.”
If jihadists are looking to raid a nuclear facility, they have a wide selection of targets: Although Pakistan is very secretive about the locations of its nuclear facilities, satellite imagery and other sources suggest that jihadists could find warheads or other nuclear materials at a minimum of 15 sites.
Yet neither the Pakistani army nor the SPD seems to consider jihadism the most immediate threat to the security of its nuclear weapons. Instead, Kayani’s worry, as expressed to Kidwai, was focused on the United States. According to sources in Pakistan, Kayani believes that the U.S. has the technical means to stage simultaneous raids on Pakistan’s nuclear facilities. Kidwai promised that the counterintelligence branch of the SPD remained focused on rooting out American and Indian spies from the Pakistani nuclear-weapons complex, and on foiling other American espionage methods. Pakistan’s air force trains its pilots to intercept U.S. spy planes; its military assumes (correctly) that the U.S. devotes many resources to aerial and satellite surveillance of its nuclear sites.
In his post-Abbottabad talk with Kayani, Kidwai also said that Pakistan’s program was sufficiently hardened, and dispersed, so that the U.S. would have to mount a sizable invasion of the country to neutralize its weapons; a raid on the scale of Abbottabad simply would not suffice. But to keep American
and Indian intelligence agencies guessing, according to multiple sources in Pakistan, Kidwai ordered an increase in the tempo of the dispersal of nuclear-weapons components and other sensitive materials. One method the SPD uses to ensure their safety is to shuffle the materials among the 15 or more facilities that handle them. Nuclear weapons must go to the shop for occasional maintenance, and so they have to be moved to suitably equipped facilities.
Nuclear components are sometimes flown by helicopter or driven over roads. But instead of moving nuclear material in armored, well-defended convoys, the SPD prefers to use civilian-style vans, without noticeable defenses, in the regular flow of traffic. And, according to a senior U.S. intelligence official, the Pakistanis have begun using this low-security method to transfer not merely the “de‑mated” component nuclear parts, but also “mated” nuclear weapons. Western nuclear experts have feared that Pakistan is building small, tactical nuclear weapons for quick deployment on the battlefield. In fact, not only is Islamabad building these devices, it is also now driving them around the streets of Pakistan.
Experts further worry about the accidental launch of a nuclear warhead during a period of high tension between Pakistan and India, or the possibility that rogue elements inside the Pakistani military might take it upon themselves to launch a nuclear attack. On paper, Pakistan’s nuclear command-and-control body, the National Command Authority, is overseen by the civilian prime minister, working in conjunction with the country’s military leaders. But in reality, the military controls the system of enabling and authenticating codes that would be transmitted to strategic forces in the event of a nuclear alert. Pakistan’s nuclear posture is opaque, however, and the U.S. has many questions about how the authority to use the weapons is delegated.
In 2006, Kidwai told an audience at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, Calif., that Pakistan maintained for its nuclear arsenal the functional equivalent of two-person control and permissive action links, or PALs -- coded locks meant to prevent unauthorized arming of a weapon. Asked about Pakistan’s PAL protocols, one former U.S. defense official replied, “It has never been clear to me what Pakistani PALs really entail. The doctrine is ‘two people’ -- but is it two people to unlock the box around the warhead, or is it two people to launch the thing once you’ve mated the warhead to the missile?” (India, in contrast, has been more transparent about its nuclear posture; unlike Pakistan, it has pledged not to use nuclear weapons first -- only in response.)
Still, what really frightens American strategic thinkers is not so much the launch protocols as the long-term stability and coherence of Pakistan itself. Stephen P. Cohen, a scholar at the Brookings Institution, says that if Pakistan were not in possession of nuclear weapons, the problem would be like “Nigeria without oil” -- a much lower foreign-policy priority. But Pakistan is in dire shape. “Its economy has failed, its politics have failed, and its army either fails or looks the other way,” says Cohen. “There are no good options.” For that reason, Washington must keep a tight bond with a nuclear Pakistan.
Few experts believe that Pakistan is in imminent danger of collapse -- but the trends, as Cohen notes, are negative. The government is widely considered to be among the world’s most corrupt (President Asif Ali Zardari is informally known as “Mr. 10 Percent”). Last year, Pakistan’s inflation rate hit 15 percent, and the real unemployment rate was 34 percent. Some 60 percent of Pakistanis survive on less than $2 a day. Nearly a quarter of the government budget goes to the military.
Pakistani Paranoia
In a country that has made only modest gains in the areas of innovation, science, and education (especially in comparison with its rival, India), the Pakistani nuclear program has played an outsized role in the building of national self-esteem. And so critiques like those are deeply wounding. They produce feelings of distrust.
In 2000, one of the authors of this article met A.Q. Khan, the nuclear scientist known as the “father” of Pakistan’s nuclear-bomb program, at a ceremony in Islamabad marking the second anniversary of the detonation of the country’s first atomic bomb. (Khan was also the principal exporter of Pakistani nuclear technology to such countries as Iran, North Korea, and Libya.) The celebration -- complete with a vanilla sheet cake on which the words Youm-e-Takbeer, or “Day of God’s Greatness,” were written in lemon frosting -- was held in the presence of many of the country’s leading nuclear scientists, and of Gen. Pervez Musharraf, who had recently taken power in a coup.
After the ceremony, Khan told a small circle of admirers, as well as the visiting American reporter, that Westerners resented Pakistan’s admission into the nuclear club. “The West has been leading a crusade against the Muslims for a thousand years,” he said. He went on to assert that the U.S. would do anything in its power to neutralize Pakistan’s nuclear assets. One of the scientists in the circle agreed, and said, “Why do the Americans want to destroy Islam?” In a recent interview with National Journal, Musharraf echoed the point: “No one ever speaks of the dangers of a Hindu bomb.”
An American visitor to Pakistan can easily see that a particular narrative has been embedded in the country’s collective psyche: The U.S. favors India, punishes Pakistan unjustifiably, and periodically abandons Pakistan when policymakers in Washington feel the country is not useful. “America is a disgrace because it turns on its friends when it has no use for them,” says Gen. Aslam Beg, a retired chief of staff of the Pakistani army, in an efficient summation of the dominant Pakistani narrative.
This sort of paranoia has spread through the Pakistani security elite -- and it went viral after the Abbottabad raid. Fear of pernicious American designs on Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal has combined with people’s anger over their military’s apparent impotence, creating a feeling of almost toxic insecurity across the country. The raid shook the confidence of the army, and its admirers, like no other event since Pakistan’s most recent defeat by the Indian army in 1999. (India and Pakistan have fought multiple wars, all of them won by India.) A Pew poll taken after the Abbottabad raid found that 69 percent of Pakistanis view the U.S. as “more of an enemy”; only 6 percent see the U.S. as “more of a partner.”
A retired Pakistani general, who expressed disgust at the military’s performance (“There should have been a try to shoot down the American helicopters”), says that the raid amplified the traditional paranoia. “You can think of this in terms of drones. The Americans are in the skies, where they are invisible, and yet they can kill anyone they want,” he said. “America is a superpower of technology. It would be easy to make a quick snatch of Pakistani strategic assets.”
Pakistanis tend to believe that the United States seeks to seize their country’s nuclear weapons preemptively, simply because the U.S. doesn’t like their country, or because of an ideological commitment to keep Muslim countries nuclear-free. This paranoia is not completely irrational, of course; it’s wise for the U.S. to try to design a plan for seizing Pakistan’s nuclear weapons in a low-risk manner. “The U.S. tried to prevent Pakistan from becoming a nuclear-weapons state,” said Harvard’s Graham Allison. “It is not delusional for Pakistan to fear that America is interested in de‑nuking them. It is prudent paranoia.”
U.S. War Plans
Though the United States has punished Pakistan in the past for its nuclear program (with sanctions that not only failed to stop the program but also helped to aggravate anti-American feeling among Pakistanis), there is no evidence to suggest that the Obama administration is actively considering “de-nuking” Pakistan in its current state. Officials at the White House and elsewhere argue that the Pakistani military and the SPD are the best tools available to keep Pakistan’s weapons secure. In the recent past, Washington has spent as much as $100 million to help the SPD build better facilities and security systems. (However, according to David Sanger’s book The Inheritance, Pakistan has not allowed Americans to conduct an audit to see how the $100 million was spent.) Although Adm. Mike Mullen, the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, eventually became disillusioned by Pakistan’s double-dealing on terrorism, he always felt his relationship with Kayani had borne fruit on nuclear weapons. “When he would bring up a concern about nuclear weapons in a meeting, the Pakistanis would usually deal with it,” an associate of Mullen’s told us.
But Pakistanis are correct to believe that the U.S. government -- because it does not trust Pakistan, because it knows that the civilian leadership is weak, and because it does not have a complete intelligence picture -- is worried that the SPD could fail in its mission, and that fissile material or a nuclear weapon could go missing. Concerned that Pakistan’s ethnic rivalries, corruption, and terrorism could one day tear the country apart, the Pentagon has developed a set of highly detailed plans to grapple with nuclear insecurity in Pakistan. “It’s safe to assume that planning for the worst-case scenario regarding Pakistan nukes has already taken place inside the U.S. government,” Roger Cressey, a former deputy director of counterterrorism under Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, told NBC News in August. “This issue remains one of the highest priorities of the U.S. intelligence community … and the White House.”
From time to time, U.S. officials have hinted publicly that concrete plans are in place in the event of a Pakistani nuclear emergency. For instance, during Senate hearings for her confirmation as secretary of State in 2005, then-National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice was asked by Sen. John Kerry what would happen to Pakistan’s nukes in the event of an Islamic coup in Islamabad. “We have noted this problem, and we are prepared to try to deal with it,” Rice said.
Those preparations have been extensive. According to military and intelligence sources, any answer to a Pakistani nuclear crisis would involve something along the following lines: If a single weapon or a small amount of nuclear material were to go missing, the response would be contained -- Abbottabad redux, although with a higher potential for U.S. casualties. The United States Joint Special Operations Command maintains rotating deployments of specially trained units in the region, most of them Navy SEALs and Army explosive-ordnance-disposal specialists, who are trained to deal with nuclear weapons that have fallen into the wrong hands. Their area of operation includes the former Soviet states, where there is a large amount of loose fissile material, and, of course, Pakistan. JSOC “has units and aircraft and parachutes on alert in the region for nuclear issues, and regularly inserts units and equipment for prep,” says a military official who was involved in supporting these technicians.
Seizing or remotely disabling a weapon of mass destruction is what’s known in military jargon as a “render-safe mission” -- and JSOC has evidently pulled off such missions before. In his memoir, Hugh Shelton, who chaired the Joint Chiefs of Staff from 1997 to 2001, recalls an incident from the 1990s in which the CIA told the Special Operations Command that a ship had left North Korea with what Shelton describes as “an illegal weapon” on board. Where it was headed, the U.S. didn’t know. He wrote: “It was a very time-sensitive mission in which a specific SEAL Team Six component was called into action. While I cannot get into the tactical elements or operational details of this mission, what I can say is that our guys were able to ‘immobilize’ the weapon system in a special way without leaving any trace.”
Much more challenging than capturing and disabling a loose nuke or two, however, would be seizing control of -- or at least disabling -- the entire Pakistani nuclear arsenal in the event of a jihadist coup, civil war, or other catastrophic event. This “disablement campaign,” as one former senior Special Operations planner calls it, would be the most taxing and most dangerous of any special mission that JSOC could find itself tasked with -- orders of magnitude more difficult and expansive than Abbottabad. The scale of such an operation would be too large for U.S. Special Operations components alone, so an across-the-board disablement campaign would be led by U.S. Central Command -- the area command that is responsible for the Middle East and Central Asia, and runs operations in Afghanistan and Iraq -- and U.S. Pacific Command.
JSOC would take the lead, however, accompanied by civilian experts. It has been preparing for such an operation for years. JSOC forces are trained to breach the inner perimeters of nuclear installations and then to find, secure, evacuate -- or, if that’s not possible, to “render safe” -- any live weapons. At the Nevada National Security Site, northwest of Las Vegas, Delta Force and SEAL Team Six squadrons practice “Deep Underground Shelter” penetrations, using extremely sensitive radiological detection devices that can pick up trace amounts of nuclear material and help Special Operations locate the precise spot where the fissile material is stored. JSOC has also built mock Pashtun villages, complete with hidden mock nuclear-storage depots, at a training facility on the East Coast, so SEALs and Delta Force operatives can practice there.
At the same time, U.S. military and intelligence forces have been quietly pre-positioning the necessary equipment in the region. In the event of a coup, U.S. forces would rush into the country, crossing borders, rappelling down from helicopters, and parachuting out of airplanes, so they can secure known or suspected nuclear-storage sites. According to the former senior Special Operations planner, JSOC units’ first tasks might be to disable tactical nuclear weapons -- because those are more easily mated, and easier to move around, than long-range missiles.
In a larger disablement campaign, the U.S. would likely mobilize the Army’s 20th Support Command, whose Nuclear Disablement Teams would accompany Special Operations detachments or Marine companies into the country. These teams are trained to engage in what the military delicately calls “sensitive site exploitation operations on nuclear sites” -- meaning that they can destroy a nuclear weapon without setting it off. Generally, a mated nuclear warhead can be deactivated when its trigger mechanism is disabled. So both the Army teams and JSOC units train extensively on the types of trigger mechanisms that Pakistani weapons are thought to use. According to some scenarios developed by American war planners, after as many weapons as possible were disabled and as much fissile material as possible was secured, U.S. troops would evacuate quickly -- because the final stage of the plan involves precision missile strikes on nuclear bunkers, using special “hard and deeply buried target” munitions.
But nuclear experts issue a cautionary note: It is not clear that U.S. intelligence agencies can identify the locations of all of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons, particularly after the Abbottabad raid. “Anyone who tells you that they know where all of Pakistan’s nukes are is lying to you,” Gen. James Jones, President Obama’s first national-security adviser, has said, according to a source who heard him say it. (When asked by the authors of this article about his statement, Jones issued a “no comment.”) Another former official with nuclear expertise says, “We don’t even know, on any given day, exactly how many weapons they have. We can get within plus or minus 10, but that’s about it.”
Back Burner
Pakistan’s military chiefs are aware that the U.S. military has developed plans for an emergency nuclear-disablement operation in their country, and they have periodically threatened to ally themselves with China as a way to undercut U.S. power in South Asia. In a recent statement obviously meant for American ears, Pakistan’s prime minister, Yousuf Raza Gilani, described the Pakistani-Chinese relationship as “higher than the mountains, deeper than the oceans, stronger than steel, and sweeter than honey.” But China, too, is worried about Pakistan’s stability, and it has recently alleged that Pakistan has harbored Uighur separatists operating in western China. According to U.S. sources, Beijing has reached an understanding in secret talks with Washington that, should America decide to send forces into Pakistan to secure its nuclear weapons, China would raise no objections. (An Obama administration spokesman had no comment.)
The United States takes great pains to stress to the Pakistanis that any disablement or render-safe plans would be put into effect only in the event that everything else fails -- and furthermore, that these plans have the primary goal of helping to maintain Pakistan’s secure possession of the weapons over the long term. In fact, some Pakistani officials accept these American plans -- they welcome American technical and military assistance in keeping nuclear material out of the wrong hands. Still, the subject comes up at almost every high-level meeting between U.S. and Pakistani officials.
In the end, though, the policy goals of the Obama administration are focused not on Pakistan’s nuclear weapons but rather on the terrorist groups based there. “Our core goal is to disrupt, dismantle, and eventually defeat al‑Qaeda,” one senior administration official says. “This is a very clarifying way to think about what we are doing and why cooperation with Pakistan is important.” In the short term, this issue flummoxes policymakers in Washington even more than nuclear security. Frustration with their dissembling Pakistani counterparts has drawn the countries further apart than at any time since just after Sept. 11.
The United States must, for its own security, keep watch over Pakistan’s nuclear program -- and that’s more easily done if it remains engaged with the Pakistani government. The U.S. must also be able to receive information from the ISI about al‑Qaeda, even if such information is provided sporadically. And Washington will simply not find a way out of Afghanistan if Pakistan becomes an open enemy. Pakistan, for its part, can afford to lose neither America’s direct financial support nor the help that America provides with international lending agencies. Neither can Pakistan’s military lose its access to U.S. weapons systems, and to the trainers attached to them. Economically, Pakistan cannot afford to be isolated by the U.S. in the way the U.S. isolates countries it considers sponsors of terrorism. Its neighbor Iran is an object lesson in this regard. For all these reasons, Pakistan and the United States remain locked in a hostile embrace. There is no escaping this vexed relationship and little evidence to suggest that it will soon improve.

IAEA Report Details Iranian Nuclear Program Activities

Wednesday, Nov. 9, 2011
By Martin Matishak
Global Security Newswire
WASHINGTON -- The International Atomic Energy Agency on Tuesday issued a report stating its "serious concerns" that Iran is clandestinely working toward developing a nuclear weapon (see GSN, Nov. 8).
 International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Yukiya Amano, shown in September, on Tuesday released an assessment expressing "serious concerns" that Iran is secretly moving to establish a nuclear-weapon capability (AP Photo/Ronald Zak).
"The information indicates that Iran has carried out activities relevant to the development of a nuclear device," the U.N. nuclear watchdog said in its latest safeguards report to the agency's 35-nation Board of Governors.
The widely anticipated assessment, which included a 13-page annex with key technical descriptions of suspect technology development and procurement by Tehran, says that the Vienna, Austria-based organization "has serious concerns regarding possible military dimensions to Iran's nuclear program."
The annex was culled from more than 1,000 pages of Iranian documents and reports that were judged by agency to be "sufficiently comprehensive and complex ... that it is not likely to have been the result of forgery or fabrication," according to the report.
Given the documents' credibility, inspectors believe Iran carried out a "structured program" specific to nuclear weapons development prior to 2003 and that some of the activities associated with the effort "may still be ongoing."
The assessment from IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano says the nuclear agency also received information from more than 10 member states that acquired, through their own efforts, intelligence about Iran's nuclear ambitions.
However, the quarterly report stopped short of claiming that Tehran is determined to acquire atomic weapons, nor does it argue that the Middle East state is on the cusp of becoming a nuclear power.
The United States and its allies have long insisted that Iran's nuclear activities are geared toward developing a warhead, a charge that Tehran has vehemently denied.
Iranian officials quickly lashed out at the report and at Amano in particular, asserting that the Japanese diplomat coordinated the details of his agency's assessment with the White House.
"Unfortunately, there is someone in charge of the IAEA who not only has no authority but tramples upon the IAEA laws and only echoes the U.S. words," Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Tuesday.
On state television he said that Iran would not retreat "one iota" from its nuclear program, the Associated Press reported. He called on the U.N. watchdog to conduct a similar assessment of the U.S. nuclear stockpile, according to Iran's Fars News Agency.
"If we wanted to develop nuclear weapons, we would have publicly stated this, but our understanding and experience says that nuclear weapons are not preventative for us, so the upcoming IAEA report only aims to exert pressure on Iran," the state-run news agency quoted Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi as saying.
The IAEA safeguards report comes at a time when the Obama administration is considering whether to seek new economic penalties against the Middle East state (see GSN, Nov. 4). Iran has already been the target of four U.N. sanctions resolutions as well as a flurry of unilateral penalties by a number of countries.
In a statement, French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe warned: "If Iran refuses to conform to the demands of the international community and refuses any serious cooperation, we stand ready to adopt, with other willing countries, sanctions on an unprecedented scale."
However, other permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, such as Russia, expressed reluctance at instituting new sanctions against Tehran (see related GSN story today).
Washington's initial reaction to the nuclear agency assessment was mixed.
"I'm definitely going to tell you we need time to study it," State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland told reporters on Tuesday. "I think you know the process here: that after a report like this comes out, we also have a scheduled meeting of the IAEA Board of Governors coming up on November 18th, so Iran will be an agenda item at that meeting."
Some senior administration officials predicted, though, that the White House would boost sanctions against Iran in the wake of the report but declined to say what that might include.
Meanwhile, the newly minted report could factor into a possible decision by Israel about whether to militarily target Iran's nuclear infrastructure, according to some international observers (see GSN, Nov. 2).
The various efforts that made up Iran's nuclear program seem to have been overseen by "senior Iranian figures" who engaged in "working-level correspondence" consistent with a coordinated program, according to the safeguards report.
The U.N. nuclear watchdog said that Iran "was working on a project to secure a source of uranium suitable for use in an undisclosed enrichment program." The product of that effort would then be "converted into metal for use in the new warhead," which in turn was the focus of "missile re-entry vehicle studies," the report adds.
The IAEA assessment also lists procurement of materials and equipment that could be used for testing a nuclear warhead, including "high-speed electronic switches and spark gaps" capable of firing detonators; "high-speed cameras;" radiation "detection and measuring" devices; and training courses on topics relevant to "nuclear explosives development," such as "neutron cross section calculations and shock wave interactions."
The documentation obtained by the agency shows that Iran conducted computer modeling studies of "at least 14 progressive design iterations" for a missile warhead and how it would endure the various stresses involved with "being launched and traveling on a ballistic trajectory" to a target.
In addition, in 2007 inspectors met with a member of a clandestine nuclear supply network and were told that Iran had been provided with "nuclear explosive design information," according to the safeguards report.
Other intelligence provided to the agency by member states suggests that Iran "constructed a large explosives containment vessel" at a site in Parchin -- located southeast of Tehran -- that could be used for nuclear-related testing.
The report also cites information that Iran conducted experiments with conventional explosives designed to compress metal into an incredibly dense mass that would prove suitable enough to kick off a chain reaction.
"The IAEA report and annex reinforce what the nonproliferation community has recognized for some time: that Iran engaged in various nuclear weapons development activities until 2003, then stopped many of them, but continued others," according to the Washington-based Arms Control Association.
"The activities documented in the IAEA report, including research related to nuclear warheads, underscore that Tehran's claims that it is only seeking the peaceful use of nuclear energy are false," said ACA experts Peter Crail, Daryl Kimball and Greg Thielmann.
The nongovernmental analysts said the U.N. nuclear watchdog assessment "should prompt greater international pressure on Tehran to respond more fully to the IAEA's questions, allow for more extensive inspections of its nuclear facilities, engage more seriously in talks on its nuclear program, and to agree to confidence-building steps to help resolve the crisis."
The controversial matter will ultimately require a mix of pressure and incentives to convince Tehran that the regime could gain more for not building a nuclear weapon than it does from developing a warhead, the association argues.
Still other experts argued that the safeguards report shows that diplomacy with Tehran has not worked.
"Throughout his administration, President Obama has downplayed Iran's progress on the ballistic missile and nuclear fronts, and he has maintained that international sanctions have slowed the momentum of Iran's military buildup," Mike Brownfield, assistant director of strategic communications at the Heritage Foundation, wrote on Wednesday.
"Now we have even more evidence to the contrary. The Iranian threat is growing -- both inside and outside its borders," he said.

Second Iranian threat to destroy Israel names its Dimona reactor
DEBKAfile Special Report November 9, 2011, 5:05 PM (GMT+02:00)
Tags:  Iran nuclear   Israel   US   IAEA 
Iranian General Masoud Jazayeri

For the second time in four days, Iran has threatened to annihilate Israel. Sunday, Nov. 6, Tehran said four missiles would be enough to kill a million Israelis. Wednesday, Nov. 9, Gen. Masoud Jazayeri, deputy commander of Iran's armed forces, said an American or Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities would not only result in the Jewish state's extinction - "Dimona is the most accessible target" - but generate a response that "would not be limited to the Middle East." 

debkafile's military sources interpret this to mean a missile attack on American bases in Europe and US Sixth Fleet vessels in the Mediterranean.

"The smallest action by Israel [against Iran] and we will see its destruction," Gen. Jazayeri went on to say. "We have plans of reprisal ready for any attack."

debkafile's Iranian sources report all this muscle-flexing is a sign of mounting edginess in Tehran as the debate in the United States and Israel over the need for a military operation against Iran gains momentum following the UN nuclear agency (IAEA)'s exposure of its nuclear program as weapon-focused.
Some American papers have responded with stories designed to discourage the Netanyahu government from a military offensive. They claim Israel is short of the bombers and air crews needed to conduct the 1,000 rapid-fire sorties required for a successful operation. The damage would therefore be slight, they argue, enough only to hold Iran's nuclear progress back by no more than a year or two at best. Israel would have to repeat its operation every few years.
Other US sources maintain that a unilateral Israel strike on Iran would seriously undercut America's Middle East influence and call for unwilling US intervention in the war to rescue Israel from the fury of Iranian missiles.

According to another view expounded by certain US columnists Wednesday, no American or Israel attack is to be expected in the coming days, but must eventually take place. President Barack Obama swore Iran would not be allowed to attain a nuclear weapon. He is bound to make good on his pledge just as he kept his promise to liquidate Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden and pull US troops out of Iraq and Afghanistan.

In Israel, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has told his office to offer no comment on the nuclear agency's evidence of Iran's work on an atomic bomb until he is ready and ordered cabinet ministers to keep silent.

There is a certain amount of frustration in Jerusalem over the nuclear agency's report, mainly because it conceals as much as it reveals. Its researches cover Iran's nuclear and missile developments only in the years 2008 and 2009 whereas both programs took off dramatically and ominously later.
debkafile's Jerusalem sources have registered two other dominant responses:

1. If as government sources claim Iran can attain an operational nuclear weapon within a year, why is the Netanyahu government talking about sanctions which everyone knows are useless instead of exercising its military option before it is too late?

2.  Israeli intelligence and military sources and commentators say the agency's findings are not new but have been known for some years.
If that is the case, many Israelis ask, why was Iran's nuclear progress kept dark and why didn't a military attack come up for debate much sooner when it would have been more expeditious?

And if the truth was kept hidden for two or three years, why should anyone believe that the data released this week covers the true picture? The conclusion is inescapable that Iran's nuclear doings are a lot more dangerous than the agency and the Israeli government would have people believe.
A minority of former government officials in opposition today maintain in response to the IAEA report that Israel should learn to live with a nuclear-armed Iran and in fact has already managed to survive for some years and even prosper in its shadow without coming to harm.
However, most Israelis now suspect that Iran already has the N-bomb but no one responsible is willing to admit it.


Israeli officials silent on nuke watchdog's Iran report
by Staff Writers
Jerusalem (AFP) Nov 9, 2011

Iran 'will not budge an iota' from its nuclear path
Tehran (AFP) Nov 9, 2011 - Iran "will not budge an iota" from its nuclear path, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Wednesday, a day after a UN report affirmed that credible evidence suggested Tehran was pursuing atomic weapons.

Ahmadinejad rejected allegations that Iran's civilian nuclear programme was being used to build a nuclear arsenal, saying, "we don't need the atomic bomb," in a speech broadcast by state television.

He told a crowd in the western city of Shahr-e Kord: "We will not budge an iota from the path we are committed to."

The president rounded on the United States, which he accused of providing the "empty claims" contained in the International Atomic Energy Agency report.

"We will not build two bombs in the face of your 20,000. We will develop something that you cannot respond to, which is ethics, humanity, solidarity and justice," he said.

"You should know that no enemy of the Iranian people has ever tasted victory," he said.

 


Israeli officials were tightlipped on Wednesday following the release of a damning report by the UN nuclear watchdog into Iran's controversial nuclear programme.

"We are studying the report," said an official in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bureau without saying whether or not Israel would respond formally.

Israel's military radio said Netanyahu had ordered his ministers not to comment on the matter out of concern that any statement or Israeli move would draw international criticism and would play into Iran's hands.

But opposition leader and Kadima party chairwoman Tzipi Livni said publication of the report meant Israel should push the world to act firmly to stop Iran.

"Now that the truth has been presented to the world, Israel must galvanise the free world to stop Iran," she said in a posting on her Facebook page. "Determination and diplomatic wisdom are crucial now."

Head of the Knesset's Foreign and Defence Committee Shaul Mofaz, also a Kadima MP, said the "severe report" provided the free world with the opportunity to "take action" against Iran.

"This is the moment of truth for the Western world's foreign policy, headed by (US) President (Barack) Obama," the Iranian-born former chief of staff said late on Tuesday.

"The report should be seen as an opportunity to change the trend, and the mission is not solely Israel's."

The world must "deepen" the sanctions on Iran, to the point of paralysing its economy, he said, stressing that military action remained the last option, Mofaz told army radio on Wednesday.

"Military action in general, and specifically by Israel, is currently the last and worst option -- but all options should be on the table now," he warned.

The official silence stood in stark contrast to the chatter in Israel in recent weeks suggesting a pre-emptive strike on Iran's nuclear facilities was being seriously considered by Netanyahu and Defence Minister Ehud Barak.

At the weekend, President Shimon Peres had warned that the likelihood of an attack was becoming "more and more likely."

Haaretz newspaper quoted government officials as saying Israel was holding off from immediate comment "because it wants to evaluate the world's response to the IAEA findings and does not want to appear to be leading the international community."

The IAEA report, a copy of which was seen by AFP late on Tuesday, said the agency had "serious concerns regarding possible military dimensions" of Iran's nuclear programme, and said it had "credible" information that Tehran "has carried out activities relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device."

In Israel, media commentators had on Tuesday suggested the "unprecedented severity" of the report meant a strike on Iran was unlikely.

Television Channels 2 and 10 both said the release of the report would give Israel "some weeks or some months" to see if the international community slaps "crippling sanctions" on the Islamic republic.

France threatens 'unprecedented' sanctions against Iran
Paris (AFP) Nov 9, 2011 - France called Wednesday for unprecedented sanctions if Iran continues to defy the world over its atomic programme after the UN nuclear watchdog said Tehran had worked on nuclear weapons technology.

"If Iran refuses to abide by the demands of the international community and rejects all serious cooperation, we are prepared to adopt, with those countries that follow, unprecedented sanctions," the foreign ministry said in a statement.

"The unprecedented report that the International Atomic Energy Agency has just published strengthens France's profound concern about Iran's nuclear programme," it said.

The ministry said that activities noted in the IAEA's report "are in violation of UN Security Council resolutions and the IAEA's governing council. They have no credible civil purpose."

The report's elements on "militarisation activities, along with the accumulation of enriched uranium and the intensive pursuit of ballistic tests paint a picture that leaves little doubt about Iran's intentions."

"All of this means that Iran has sought, and apparently continues to seek, the nuclear bomb under the cover of an alleged civilian and peaceful programme."

The IAEA's report on Tuesday said it had "serious concerns regarding possible military dimensions to Iran's nuclear programme."

"This information indicates that Iran has carried out activities relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device," it said.

The Vienna-based agency said some of its more than 1,000 pages of information indicated Iran has done work "on the development of an indigenous design of a nuclear weapon including the testing of components."

Previous IAEA assessments have centred on Iran's efforts to produce fissile material -- uranium and plutonium -- which can be put to peaceful uses like power generation, or be used to make a nuclear bomb.

But the update focuses on Iran's alleged efforts towards putting the radioactive material in a warhead and developing missiles. Iran denies it is trying to make a nuclear bomb.

Russia and China have expressed reservations about the publication of the IAEA report and may block a fifth round of United Nations sanctions in the Security Council.


Iran on Verge of Achieving Nuke Capacity: Report

Monday, Nov. 7, 2011
Data slated for publication this week by the International Atomic Energy Agency indicates that Iran has passed every crucial milestone in a possible effort to develop a nuclear bomb, the Washington Post reported on Sunday (see GSN, Nov. 4).
 A technician walks through Iran's Isfahan uranium conversion facility in 2007. The International Atomic Energy Agency is poised to publish information suggesting that Iran has taken every key step toward potentially constructing a nuclear weapon, according to a news report (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi).
The forthcoming Iran safeguards assessment from IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano provides details on what appears to be a clandestine scientific initiative more sophisticated, more productive and wider in scope than is generally believed, according to the Post. The United States and other countries suspect that Iran's nuclear program is geared toward weapons development; Tehran insists the effort is strictly peaceful.
Experts in Iran labored in a number of areas over much of the previous decade -- with the exception of a period in 2003 -- to acquire critical capabilities necessary to assemble and vet a nuclear warhead suited for deployment on an Iranian long-range missile, Institute for Science and International Security head David Albright said.
“The program never really stopped,” Albright said in briefing slides, obtained by the Post, describing key IAEA findings and presented last week to intelligence personnel. “After 2003, money was made available for research in areas that sure look like nuclear weapons work but were hidden within civilian institutions.”
Taking into account all related data provided to the U.N. nuclear watchdog, IAEA experts have determined that Iran “has sufficient information to design and produce a workable implosion nuclear device” with a core of weapon-grade uranium, Albright said in the closed-door meeting. Findings suggest the nation established a methodical, routinized bid to acquire every capacity necessary in bomb assembly, tapping domestic and international sources for needed knowledge, the expert said.
“The (intelligence) points to a comprehensive project structure and hierarchy with clear responsibilities, time lines and deliverables,” said Albright, according to a record of his remarks. Two European envoys verified the briefing's specifics.
Data received by the U.N. organization establishes former Soviet atomic expert Vyacheslav Danilenko as a key player in Iran’s acquisition of schematics for an R265 generator, a hollow aluminum structure lined with detonators for initiating the fission reaction in a nuclear explosion. Danilenko provided support to Iran for no less than five years following his recruitment by the Iranian Physics Research Center in the 1990s, and he provided scientific reports and verbal guidance for building and vetting a detonation component believed to have been included in an Iranian warhead plan, said two officials privy to unreleased IAEA information.
U.N. inspectors pushed relatively hard for Danilenko's assistance because his contribution in Iran was judged to be central, according to the two officials. The expert said he believed he was only aiding peaceful programs, they added.
No indications have emerged that Moscow was aware of Danilenko's role, the Post reported. North Korea and former top Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan also appear to have supported Iranian efforts, envoys and armament specialists said (Joby Warrick, Washington Post, Nov. 6).
The 35-nation IAEA Board of Governors is expected to receive photographs taken from space of a structure the agency believes to be a massive steel chamber for conducting nuclear weapon-linked combustion experiments, the Associated Press reported quoted diplomatic officials as saying.
Western nations hope the IAEA document will prompt the agency's governing board to again refer Iran to the U.N. Security Council, which has already adopted four resolutions aimed at curbing Iran's disputed atomic activities. Alternatively, the powers could seek a March deadline for Iran to better assist the IAEA investigation of the nation's nuclear program. Afterward, Tehran might be sent back to the Security Council.
Iran last week received around 12 pages of information to be appended to the report on its purported suspected weapons activities, one of the envoys said, adding Tehran had initially declined to take the information (George Jahn, Associated Press/CBS News, Nov. 4).
"These documents are baseless and non-authentic," Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi told reporters on Saturday. The material's publication would place the U.N. nuclear watchdog's objectivity in doubt, Iran's Fars News Agency quoted him as saying (Fars News Agency, Nov. 5).

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Iran threatens Israel’s ‘existence’ if military strike occurs

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Reuters
Thursday, Nov. 10, 2011

MOSCOW — A senior Iranian official warned Israel on Thursday that a military strike against Iran would create a threat to its own survival.

“If the Zionist regime allows itself such an oversight, a question of its existence will arise — not a question of its legitimacy but a question of its existence,” Ali Baqeri, deputy secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said through an interpreter during a visit to Moscow.

Baqeri’s remarks echoed a warning by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who said military action against Iranian nuclear sites would be met with “iron fists”, Iranian state television reported.

Tension over Iran’s nuclear programme has increased since the release of an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report saying Tehran appeared to have worked on designing a bomb and may still be conducting secret research to that end.

Speculation has heightened in the Israeli and Western press about the possibility of strikes by both Israel and the United States on Iran’s nuclear sites.

Baqeri said Iran does not believe Israel will launch an attack, saying Israel “is in the worst condition since its creation … in political, economic and social terms and in terms of security issues.”

He said “the people of these countries (in the Middle East) want to chase Israel from the region. And so now the Zionist regime has very many weak points.”


Al-Qaeda's North Africa branch says got Libya weapons
by Staff Writers
Nouakchott (AFP) Nov 9, 2011


Al-Qaeda's North Africa franchise acknowledged it had acquired part of slain Libyan dictator Moamer Kadhafi's arsenal, in comments by one of its leaders quoted Wednesday.

Mokhtar Belmokhtar, believed to be one of the leaders of Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), made the remarks to Mauritanian news agency ANI, which has carried interviews and statements from the group in the past.

"We have been one of the main beneficiaries of the revolutions in the Arab world," said Belmokhtar, an Algerian national.

"As for our acquisition of Libyan armament, that is an absolutely natural thing," he said, without elaborating on the nature of the weapons purportedly acquired.

Officials and experts have expressed concern that part of Kadhafi's considerable stock of weapons could end up in the hands of AQIM, which has bases in the Sahel and currently holds several foreign hostages.

According to several experts, AQIM has acquired surface-to-air missiles which could pose a threat to flights over the region.

Belmokhtar also claimed a level of ideological convergence existed between his movement and the Islamist rebels who eventually toppled Kadhafi last month and became Libya's new rulers.

"We did not fight , alongside them in the field against the Kadhafi forces," he said. "But young Islamists, jihadis... were the ones spearheading the revolution in Libya."

The National Transitional Council now in charge of Libya owes its victory over Kadhafi's 42-year rule partly to Western military backing and claims to seek the establishment of a moderate Islamic administration.


Tehran: For an Israeli attack, four Iranian missiles would hit a million Israelis
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 6, 2011, 5:47 PM (GMT+02:00)
Nuclear-capable Kh-55 missile

The Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) new agency Fars headlined a threat Sunday, Nov. 6: Four Iranian missiles can destroy tiny Israel, said the paper in Tehran's first reaction to the flood of conflicting reports about a possible Israel attack on Iran's nuclear sites. However, Iran's leaders are divided on how to assess the seriousness of an Israeli or American threat to their nuclear program and this is reflected in their various media. 

The writer of the Fars story is identified by debkafile's Iranian sources as Saad-allah Zarey, its senior military commentator and a crony of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He stressed that the four missiles capable of causing the Zionist entity a million casualties would be conventional.

According to those sources point that the experiences of the Gulf war show that this number of ordinary missiles could not cause anything like the damage calculated by the writer. What Zarey may be referring to are the stubborn rumors going around Western intelligence circles since early 2005 that during the breakup of the Soviet Union, Tehran laid hands on black market nuclear cruise missiles from the Ukraine and 3 to 5 more from Belarus.

debkafile cites a BBC report of March 18, 2005:

Ukrainian arms dealers smuggled 18 nuclear-capable cruise missiles to Iran and China in 1999-2001, Ukraine's prosecutor-general has said. The Soviet-era Kh-55 missiles - also known as X-55s - have a maximum range of 2,500km. They are launched by long-range bombers. The Kh-55, known in the West as the AS-15, is designed to carry a nuclear warhead with a 200-kiloton yield.

Our military sources add that with these missiles in hand, Iranian warplanes could bombard Israel 1,200 kilometers away without leaving their own air space.

The Ukrainian prosecutor-generalclaimed at the time that the missiles were not exported with nuclear warheads.

However our sources cite Western intelligence as suspecting that Tehran obtained those warheads from Belarus or from unconventional arms traffickers based in the Muslim Republics which were part of the USSR up until the 1990s. And indeed the Fars report did not specify what warheads the "conventional" missiles would carry.

Saad-allah Zarey described Israel as so small and vulnerable that even 100 Israeli bombs would not substantially damage Iran which is 80 times larger in area, whereas in a missile war Israel would not have enough time to rally its defenses. Therefore, he concludes, the chances of Israel or the US launching a military operation against Iran are slight.

Iran's most radical publication Kayhan finds in its Sunday editorial that Israel is too weak and America too exhausted to do much harm to Iran. Past experience has consistently shown that outside pressure makes Iran stronger, this paper says. Iran will come out on top of threats and sanctions compared with "Israel's defeat in its 33-day war against Hizballah," and America's "defeats in Iraq and Afghanistan."

However, another state-controlled paper, Tehran Emrooz, takes the opposite tack. Its editorial writer advises against underestimating the chances of an American military assault. According to this publication, Washington is preparing a "shock and awe" strike on Iran while at the same time stepping up sanctions.

Another editorial in Sharq agrees that "enemy plans" to attack Iran should not be taken lightly.
While all these comments reflect the debate underway among the various factions in the Iranian regime on the likelihood of an attack, no Iranian official has so far stepped forward with a definitive position.
Sunday, Ayatollah Khamenei sent a message of greeting to the Iranian pilgrims in Mecca, but made no mention of the nuclear issue except for a warning of the "perils and enemies" in wait for the Islamic Republic. And Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi likewise held his tongue on the issue in a speech he made Sunday in Tehran. 


World Powers Split on Steps Against Iran

Thursday, Nov. 10, 2011
Russia pledged on Wednesday to veto any new penalties proposed against Iran at the U.N. Security Council, challenging an effort by Washington and European governments to maximize pressure on the Persian Gulf state to address concerns about its possible nuclear-weapon activities, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday (see GSN, Nov. 09).
The U.N. Security Council meets on Tuesday. Russia on Wednesday vowed to prevent the passage of any further Security Council measures aimed at pressuring Iran to address international concerns over its nuclear program (U.N. photo).
An International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards report issued on Tuesday expressed "serious concerns" that Iran is secretly moving to establish a nuclear-weapon capability (Jay Solomon, Wall Street Journal, Nov. 10). Russia, though, on Wednesday dismissed the document as “a compilation of well-known facts that have intentionally been given a politicized intonation.”
IAEA officials rely in the document on “assumptions and suspicions, and juggle information with the purpose of creating the impression that the Iranian nuclear program has a military component,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in released comments. Tehran has long insisted is atomic ambitions are strictly peaceful.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and a lower-ranking diplomat conferred in Moscow on Wednesday with Iranian Supreme National Security Council Undersecretary Ali Bagheri, the ministry stated (Ellen Barry, New York Times, Nov. 9).
Separately, Beijing said economic penalties could not "fundamentally solve" the atomic dispute, Agence France-Presse reported.
The "pressing task" is to bolster outreach "and push forward the P-5+1 dialogue with Iran," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei said on Thursday, in reference to the five permanent U.N. Security Council member nations and Germany (Robert Saiget, Agence France-Presse/Google News, Nov. 10)
The Obama administration affirmed the gravity of the IAEA assessment while avoiding any reference to specific potential punitive steps against Tehran, the Journal reported.
"We're looking at a range of options. I don't want to say one is off the table … one is still on the table," U.S. State Department spokesman Mark Toner said. "I think that limits our ability to look at all possibilities and come up with additional pressure as appropriate."
The need for a unified and robust strategy on Iran's nuclear program was discussed on Wednesday within European governments, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pressed other countries to take more decisive action on the matter.
"The significance of the report is that the international community must bring about the cessation of Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons which endanger the peace of the world and of the Middle East," Netanyahu's office stated.
European government sources said they might pursue a formal denunciation of Iran at the IAEA Board of Governors meeting slated for next week. In addition, the European Union and United States could insititute additional penalties targeting Iranian energy operations.
"We need to show to the Israelis that there's a sense of seriousness," one European government source said. "And the U.S. is going to be key to achieving this" (Solomon, Wall Street Journal).
EU governments have begun discussions of potential penalties and could settle on measures ahead of a Dec. 1 meeting of top EU diplomats in Brussels, Belgium, envoys told Reuters on Thursday (Reuters, Daily Star, Nov. 10).
Experts, though, said the continent's economic instability could limit what steps European nations are willing to take against Iran, the Associated Press reported on Thursday (Brian Murphy, Associated Press I/San Jose Mercury News, Nov. 10)
Meanwhile, top British officials have been advised to anticipate an Israeli attack on Iran "as early as Christmas, or very early in the new year," a high-level British Foreign Office insider told the London Daily Mail.
Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Thursday said his country would retaliate against an attack, AP reported.
"Anybody who takes up the idea of an attack on Iran, should get ready to receive a strong slap and an iron fist" by Iran's military, Khamenei said (Associated Press II/Miami Herald, Nov. 10).
Iran might attack Israel's Dimona nuclear complex in response to an Israeli strike, the Journal quoted high-level Iranian defense sources as saying (Solomon, Wall Street Journal).
Tehran will probably review its procedures for cooperating with the U.N. nuclear watchdog in light of the new U.N. safeguards assessment, the Xinhua News Agency quoted Iranian Ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency Ali Asghar Soltanieh as saying. The official described the IAEA report as a "historical mistake" (Xinhua News Agency, Nov. 10).

Mid-East war fears after Iranian base blasts, Syria's Arab League suspension
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis November 13, 2011, 8:42 AM (GMT+02:00)
Tags:  Iran nuclear   Syria   Bashar Assad   Arab League   Qatar 
Base explosion near Tehran

The potential for a regional flare-up shot up Friday and Saturday, Nov-11-12, with the blasts at two Iranian arms bases which killed at least 32 Revolutionary Guards men including Iran's top missile expert, and the Arab League Foreign Ministers' decision to suspend Syria's membership over Bashar Assad's brutal military crackdown on civilians.
As windows shattered in Tehran, the streets were awash with rumors that Iran was under attack, or that the regime had staged a failed nuclear test. Foreign businessmen were said to be fleeing the country.

In Kuwait, lawmakers demanded an urgent debate on the potential fallout from an attack on Iran three days after British ministers were briefed on a possible US-backed Israeli strike against Iran's nuclear sites in the last week of December or early next year. Hopes faded for effective international sanctions in the wake of nuclear watchdog evidence of Iran's nuclear capabilities, even as US President Obama tackled Russian and Chinese leaders at .

Hours after the base explosions in Iran, the Arab League decided to suspend the membership of its ally Syria and impose political and economic sanctions on the Assad regime. Members were advised to withdraw their ambassadors form the Syrian capital until their Nov. 2 peace plan was implemented. The AL decision was praised by US President Barack Obama and backed by the UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon.

This penalty hurts Bashar Assad more than would a threatened Turkish invasion and seizure of a buffer enclave to serve the Syrian opposition. It conveys the Arab world's rejection of the legitimacy of Bashar Assad's regime. The Syrian ruler has got away with defying the UN Security Council, NATO and even Washington. He will find it much harder to survive being cast out of the fold by his Arab brethren who are punishing him for the contempt he showed for the peace deal they initiated and he signed by having his troops kill another 250 civilians in ten days.

Indeed the Qatari foreign minister Hamad bin Jassim, reading out of the decision, warned Assad that further non-compliance would result in "more steps to protect the citizens of Syria" by the Arab League – a broad hint at military intervention to aid the beleaguered opposition as Assad tried ineffectually to brand the Arab bloc American puppets.

Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Jordan are already arming Syrian opposition groups and Turkey is hosting their command and training facilities. The scenario is beginning to resemble the Libyan format. There too, Qatari, Jordanian and Turkish military elements took part in the NATO operation to overthrow Muammar Qaddafi. And Bashar Assad may be nearing the end of his tether.

No one any longer credits his word after his repeated promises in the nine-month uprising against him to pull his troops out of city centers, release prisoners and enact reforms, while only piling on the savagery. His army is turning against him. Even before the Arab League struck home, the tens of trained fighters going over to the opposition in the early months of the conflict were swelling in the last two weeks to hundreds, taking their arms with them. The ruling Assad clan and military command have reached a crossroads in the pact they concluded in March to extinguish the uprising regardless of the cost in blood.

That pact may now prove unsustainable confronting its parties with three broad options:

1.  The army's top commanders may decide they can no longer get away with the slaughter committed in the name of the regime and the time has come to get rid of Bashar Assad. A coup d'etat would be one way.

2.  Assad may get in first with a preemptive coup of his own to install in Damascus a military junta composed of trusted loyalists which he and his family will manipulate behind the scenes. This move would ease some of the Arab and Western pressure on him to step down.

3.  He could make good on his threat to start a Middle East conflagration along with Iran and Hizballah. Most of the action would be aimed against Israel forcing the Arab League to go along with Syria and restore its status.

The war rumors sweeping Tehran after the explosions at the Revolutionary Guards bases and the hard choices confronting the discredited Assad regime have generated a highly perilous climate in the region. All its capitals are on edge for trouble. This time, the usual conspiracy allegations from Tehran and Damascus won't wash.

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Iran will have five nukes by April 2012. Only 2-3 months left for military option
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 14, 2011, 3:13 PM (GMT+02:00)
Iran's late missile chief Brig. Hassan Moghadam

According to the briefing given to a closed meeting of Jewish leaders in New York Sunday, Nov. 13, the window of opportunity for stopping Iran attaining a nuclear weapon is closing fast, debkafile's sources report. It will shut down altogether after late March 2012. The intelligence reaching US President Barak Obama is that by April, Iran will already have five nuclear bombs or warheads and military action then would generate a dangerous level of radioactive contamination across the Gulf region, the main source of the world's energy.

Sunday, too, President Barack Obama said the sanctions against Iran had taken an "enormous bite" out of its economy. He also said that the "US is united with Russian and Chinese leaders in ensuring Iran does not develop an atomic weapon and unleash an arms race across the Middle East."
He spoke after talking to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Chinese President Hu Jintao at the Asian Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Hawaii about the new evidence submitted by the International Atomic Energy Agency that Iran was engaged in clandestine efforts to build a bomb.

He said both shared the goal of keeping a bomb out of Iran's hands.
As to sanctions, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told a news conference that sanctions against Iran had been exhausted and "now the problem should be solved though diplomatic channels."
debkafile's analysts note that tough sanctions are pretty much off the table now. In any case, it is obvious that they failed to slow down Iran's work on a bomb as confirmed by the latest IAEA report.

The road of diplomacy, favored by Moscow, has proved worse than ineffectual. Its only result was to buy time for Tehran to carry on with its military atomic project free of international pressure.

Obama went on to say Sunday that, while his strong preference was to resolve the Iran issue diplomatically, "We are not taking any options off the table. Iran with nuclear weapons would pose a threat not only to the region but also to the United States."

This was the first time the US president had called a nuclear-armed Iran a threat to the United States. Until now, official statements limited the threat to "America's regional interests and influence."

The Jewish leaders meeting Sunday were informed that the Obama administration had intelligence data that the US and Israel have no more than a couple of months left for striking down Iran's military weapons development by force. This will not longer be viable after Iran is armed with five nuclear bombs or warheads.
debkafile's military and intelligence sources refute the wild rumors alleging that the American CIA or Israeli Mossad was responsible for the massive explosion Saturday at a Revolutionary Guards base west of Tehran in which Iran's missile chief Brig. Hassan Moghadam was killed.
While both organizations have formidable capabilities which Iran has experienced in the past, there is no way -  even with a UAV - they could have hit a single missile warhead in the middle of a Guards base at the very moment that IRGC chiefs were gathered around considering how best to improve its precision.

All the evidence garnered in the two days since the attack indicates that a single warhead blew up by accident while it was being handled,  rather than by sabotage.


Barak: Iran is testing uranium- and plutonium-based bombs – not tactical arms
DEBKAfile Special Report November 17, 2011, 11:21 AM (GMT+02:00)
Israel's Defense Minister Ehud Barak

Defense Minister Ehud Barak told the PBS interviewer Charlie Rose Wednesday, Nov. 16 that none of the experiments Iran was conducting was based on a neutron source.  "It's always simultaneous explosions on heavy metals and certain other activities which cannot be explained," he said.

DEBKAfile's military sources note his stress on the lack of evidence that Iran was trying to develop tactical neutron bombs. Tehran, he said, was experimenting with uranium- and plutonium- based explosives, meaning large nuclear bombs rather than small, tactical warheads.

Barak slammed former IAEA director Dr. Mohammed ElBaradei, who is now running for election as Egyptian president, accusing him of concealing the truth about Iran's nuclear development. He praised the incumbent director, Yukiya Amano, for leveling on what his experts had found.

Barak offered the opinion that if the late Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi had not relinquished his nuclear program in 2003 but attained a nuclear bomb instead, the March 2011 NATO operation against him would not have been ordered either by French President Nicolas Sarkozy, former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi or British Prime Minister David Cameron.
As to Iraq's Saddam Hussain: Had he possessed "a few crude nuclear devices when he invaded Kuwait in 1990," said Barak,  the US-led coalition could not have pushed him out of the emirate in the first Gulf War.
In the interview, Barak warned that a nuclear-armed Iran would touch off a Middle East nuclear arms race drawing in Egypt and less responsible regimes headed by the Muslim Brotherhood.

"You could wake up one morning," he said, "to find Iran had occupied Bahrain or Qatar. Who then would come and liberate them?"

Barak declined to answer questions about the feasibility of totally destroying the Iranian nuclear program.

He also offered no opinion on the view that a military operation against Iran would gain no more than a three-year breathing space before Tehran rebuilt its nuclear weapons program, a view recently articulated by US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta.

He was far from optimistic about international sanctions stopping Iran in its nuclear tracks.

The defense minister went on to warmly praised President Barack Obama and his administration's commitment to Israel's security and said "Under this administration we have advanced still further into a clear, deep, deep commitment to the security of Israel and beyond."

He also praised the administration's policy of combating terrorism, such as the targeting of Osama bin Laden.
Wednesday night, debkafile reported:  A short statement was read out to the Knesset (Israel's parliament by cabinet member Michael Eitan Wednesday afternoon, Nov. 16. It read: "Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu informed the full Knesset plenum that all options are on the table when it comes to Iran's nuclear program. The prime minister and the authorized bodies are acting to stop the nuclear armament of Iran. The efforts are ongoing and we will do everything possible to enlist states in the international community, "he continued "because the Iranian threat is adanger not only to the State of Israel but to world peace."

The Knesset was due to devote a special session to the question of an attack on Iran.

debkafile's military sources report that this is the first statement of this nature the prime minister has ever delivered to Israel's parliament. It was phrased notably in the present tense. "The authorized bodies" are thought to refer to the Israeli Defense Forces and its intelligence community.

Also worth noting is that Netanyahu sent a minister to read out his message. He himself absent from this key debate and so was the defense minister. For the first time too, there was no reference to sanctions which have figured hitherto in all Israeli official statements on the Iranian nuclear controversy.

The implication is that an operation against a nuclear Iran may be in the works. If so, a response from Tehran is to be expected shortly.
Earlier Wednesday, the supreme commander of Iran's armed forces Gen. Hassan Firouz-Abadi said Israel's cries of alarm about Iran's nuclear development bespeak shock and fear. But nothing will save the Zionist regime from its bitter fate – a hint at Iran's nuclear capability.
Firouz-Abadi said the massive explosion which killed Iran's missile chief Saturday "had nothing to do with Israel or America." It took place during "research on weapons that could strike Israel," adding that the blast had delayed by only two weeks the development of an undisclosed military "product."

The two statements together aroused lively speculation in the tense climate left by the latest nuclear watchdog agency's evidence of Iran's work on a nuclear weapon. Linking them might suggest that the Israeli prime minister had decided to refute the Iranian general's claim. By stating that "efforts are ongoing" to stop Iran's nuclear armament, he may have been implying that  the explosion at the Guards base Saturday was indeed a covert Israeli operation in line with those efforts.


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