No Iran Strike Imminent, Israel Says
Thursday, Dec. 1, 2011
Israel has no plan to carry out a military strike against Iran in the immediate future, but Jerusalem has ruled out no potential course of action in its effort to prevent Tehran from acquiring a nuclear-weapon capability, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said on Thursday (see
GSN, Nov. 30).
(Dec. 1) - An Israeli F-16A warplane takes off in 2010. Israel's defense minister on Thursday said his country is not planning an imminent armed strike on Iran (AP Photo/Dan Balilty). "We have no intention, at the moment, of taking action, but the state of Israel is far from being paralyzed by fear," Reuters quoted the official as saying in a radio interview. "It must act calmly and quietly -- we don't need big wars."
"Israel would be very glad if sanctions and diplomacy could bring the Iranian leadership to a clear decision to abandon its nuclear military program," Barak added. "Unfortunately, I think that is not going to happen."
Iran has consistently denied assertions by Israel, the United States and other powers that its nuclear program is aimed at producing weapons.
U.S. Joints Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Martin Dempsey on Wednesday backed economic and political strategies aimed at preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear deterrent, combined with "the stated intent not to take any options off the table."
"I'm not sure the Israelis share our assessment of that," Dempsey said, referring to relative levels of importance Washington and Jerusalem have assigned to the use of military force as a possible means of addressing the standoff. "And because they don't and because to them this is an existential threat, I think probably that it's fair to say that our expectations are different right now,"
"I don't know" if Jerusalem would notify Washington of an impending Israeli strike against Iran, he said.
Addressing the U.S. general's comments, Barak said his country "greatly respects the United States" and remains in constant contact with Washington on defense-related matters.
"But one must remember that ultimately, Israel is a sovereign nation and the Israeli government, defense forces and security services -- not others -- are responsible for Israel's security, future and existence," the minister said (Jeffrey Heller,
Reuters I, Dec. 1).
Meanwhile, the European Union has moved to blacklist 141 firms and 39 individuals as part of efforts to address the atomic dispute with Iran, the BBC reported on Thursday. The 27-nation bloc failed to achieve consensus on punitive steps to target the country's petroleum operations, according to media reports (
BBC News, Dec. 1).
Separately, the United Kingdom announced it would force all Iranian envoys to leave its territory following Tuesday's attack by hard-liners on the British Embassy in Tehran, the Xinhua News Agency reported. The embassy encroachment took place after Iran moved this week to bar British ambassadors from the country. Last week, the United Kingdom, United States and Canada announced new unilateral sanctions over Iran's nuclear efforts.
Iran will "retaliate" to the United Kingdom's latest move, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said on Wednesday.
London does not intend to end all relations with Tehran, British Foreign Secretary William Hague said earlier.
"This does not amount to the severing of diplomatic relations in their entirety. It is an action that reduces our relations with Iran to the lowest level consistent with the maintenance of diplomatic relations," Hague said (
Xinhua News Agency I, Dec. 1).
Norway followed the United Kingdom in withdrawing diplomatic staff from Tehran. France, Germany and the Netherlands indicated they had summoned their respective envoys to Iran, and Italy said it was reviewing developments (
Xinhua News Agency II, Dec. 1).
“We are clearly going to see a much tougher stance by the Europeans toward Iran following this event,” a Western envoy in Tehran told the Washington Post. “After the Brits were ransacked, the EU has no other choice but to stand up against Iran.”
“There is a strong view that Iran massively overreached,” an Obama administration insider said in reference to the White House's reaction. “Iran has given the international community a condemnable act to rally around” (Erdbrink/Warrick,
Washington Post, Nov. 30).
The U.S. State Department has blacklisted four additional Iranian entities, according to a Nov. 29
Federal Register notice (
Federal Register, Nov. 29).
In another move thought to target Iran, the Defense Department has officially called for the transfer of 4,900 bunker-buster bombs to the United Arab Emirates, the
Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday (see
GSN, Dec. 1; Adam Entous,
Wall Street Journal, Dec. 1).
Barak vs US: We can't wait until Iran declares it has a nuclear bomb
DEBKAfile Special Report December 1, 2011, 11:28 AM (GMT+02:00)
Top US soldier Gen. Martin Dempsey
Major US-Israel differences surfaced suddenly Thursday, Dec. 1, over the timing and circumstances of an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, when Gen. Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint US Chiefs of Staff, said: "I don't know whether Israel would alert the United States ahead of time if it decided to take military action against Iran." Three hours later, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak maintained US policy would enable Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon without the possibility of attacking it.
In an interview, General Dempsey went on to admit a range of differences between the US and Israel on two key issues: The first related to their expectations from the sanctions and the diplomatic moves being taken by the Obama administration, “with the stated intent not to take any options off the table” – language that leaves open the possibility of future military action.
“I am not sure that the Israelis share our outlook” on this matter, said the American general.
The second issue on which the Americans and Israelis are divided is their perspective on the future course of events relating to the Iranian nuclear program and the Middle East: “And … because to them this (a nuclear-armed Iran) is an existential threat I think probably that it’s fair to say that our expectations are different right now,” said Gen. Dempsey.
In an early morning radio interview, Ehud Barak laid Israel's cards on the table with unusual frankness: He said he would be happy if diplomatic moves and sanctions were to stop Iran’s nuclear program and make it possible to give up the military option, but he does not believe that is the case.
“They (the Americans) tell us - What’s the hurry with an attack on Iran? Wait until (Ayatollah) Khamenei announces that Iran is abandoning the NPT (nuclear non-proliferation treaty). The Iranians will break the locks (IAEA inspection seals at Iranian uranium enrichment plants) and then it will be clear to all that they have a nuclear weapon.”
Barak added: “The difference between us and the Americans is this: We say that because the Iranians are busy moving their nuclear program to underground facilities, they can announce this (that they have a nuclear weapon) after it is no longer possible to attack it." He went on to warn that If Israel is pushed into a corner, “it will have to act.”
In other words, Israel is not willing to wait, as the Obama administration proposes, until diplomatic moves and sanctions against Iran have achieved their aim, mostly because Israel is not ready to let Iran complete the transfer of its nuclear facilities to underground facilities and so make them safe from attack.
According to debkafile’s military and intelligence sources, Israel gives Iran no more than six to eight months to complete this transfer, i.e., by June to August, 2012.
Another point made by the Israeli defense minister was that some of Iran's nuclear facilities have already been hidden underground and are therefore impossible to monitor, even by military satellites. He was referring especially, our sources say, to the Fordo bunker site near Qom where, according to intelligence data, Iran is about to start enriching 20-percent grade uranium to 60 percent. This would bring the program to a few weeks away from weapons grade uranium for a bomb or a warhead.
On Tuesday, Nov. 29, former IDF military intelligence chief Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Yadlin estimated that Iran had already accumulated sufficient enriched uranium to build 4 to 5 nuclear bombs.
In his interview Thursday, Defense Minister Barak also answered former Mossad chief Meir Dagan's persistent arguments against an Israeli military strike against Iran on the grounds that it would immediately trigger a regional war: Syria, Hizballah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad would launch attacks on Israel, seriously battering the country and inflicting heavy casualties, in Dagan's view.
Israel, Barak replied, is nowhere near being paralyzed by messages of doom. The degree of damage and number of civilian casualties would not, in his view, be alarmingly high. He repeated his estimate of early November that the casualty figure from a combined Arab missile assault resulting from an attack on Iran would be “a lot less than 500” – especially if people took cover.
The defense minister concluded this comment by saying: I have no idea what may happen tomorrow morning in Syria, or in Egypt.” debkafile’s military sources interpret this as meaning that the danger of a new Middle East regional war is already present - unrelated to a possible Israeli attack on Iran, but rather as a result of the volatility set up by the uprising in Syria and the predicted rise to power in Egypt of the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafi Islamists.
Experimental Iranian Missile Could Carry WMD: Israel
Wednesday, Nov. 30, 2011
A senior Israeli official on Wednesday said Iran is preparing a low-altitude cruise missile that could be capable of transporting an unconventional payload, the Jerusalem Post reported (see GSN, Sept. 22).
"The Iranians are developing a capability that within several years, they will have cruise missiles that can fly at low altitudes and carry nonconventional warheads," said Arieh Herzog, director of the Defense Ministry's Missile Defense Organization.
Iran was reportedly refining an experimental missile at a military installation where a detonation this month caused the death of nearly 20 personnel. The source of the Nov. 12 blast was unclear (see GSN, Nov. 29).
Israeli antimissile efforts are a response to steps by Iran to upgrade its weapon-delivery platforms, said Herzog, who is slated to leave his position in early 2012 (see GSN, Nov. 28). Israeli defenses include two Arrow units intended to intercept ballistic missiles with greater reaches, as well as three Iron Dome units for destroying enemy rockets.
Israel's next-generation Arrow 3 antimissile technology "is in an advanced development stage and due to its capabilities we will have a number of interception possibilities out of the atmosphere," he said (see GSN, July 26). The system is expected to enter active duty in 2015.
The David's Sling system, designed to counter midrange and cruise missiles, is due for initial fielding next year (Yaakov Katz, Jerusalem Post, Nov. 30).
Israel and Syria brace for regional war between mid-Dec. 2011 and mid-Jan 2012
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 5, 2011, 2:41 PM (GMT+02:00)
Multiple Launch Rocket System in action
The actions and words of Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Syrian ruler Bashar Assad in the last 72 hours indicate they are poised for a regional war, including an attack on Iran, for some time between December 2011 and January 2012.
In their different ways, both have posted road signs to the fast-approaching conflict as debkafile's Middle East sources disclose:
1. Saturday, Dec. 3, Syria staged a large-scale military exercise in the eastern town of Palmyra, which was interpreted by Western and Israeli pundits as notice to its neighbors, primarily Turkey and Israel, that the uprising against the Assad regime had not fractured its sophisticated missile capabilities.
debkafile's military sources advise attaching more credibility to the official Damascus statement of Sunday, Dec. 4: "The Syrian army has staged a live-fire drill in the eastern part of the country under war-like circumstances with the aim of testing its missile weaponry in confronting any attack."
Videotapes of the exercise, briefly carried on the Internet early Monday before they were removed by an unseen hand, support this statement. They showed a four-stage exercise, in which missile fire was a minor feature. Its focus was on the massive firing of self-propelled 120mm cannon, brigade-strength practice of 600mm and 300mm multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS), offensive movements of Syrian armored brigades backed by ground-to-ground missiles with short 150-200 kilometer ranges. They drilled tactics for repelling enemy reinforcements rushed to combat arenas.
All this added up to is an impressive Syrian demonstration of its ability to ward off an attack on Syrian soil by turning a defensive array into an offensive push for taking the battle over into the aggressor's territory, whether the Turkish or Israeli armies or a combined Arab League force backed by NATO.
2. Israel made its rejoinder to the Syrian war message 24 hours later.
Addressing a ceremony honoring the memory of for Israel's founding father David Ben-Gurion, Netanyahu recalled how 63 years ago, Ben-Gurion declared the foundation of the State of Israel in defiance of pressures from most of Western leaders and a majority of his own party. They warned him that he would trigger a combined Arab attack to destroy the fledgling state just three years after the end of World War II.
But fortunately for us, said the prime minister, Ben-Gurion stood up to the pressure and went through with his decision, otherwise Israel would not be here today.
"There are times," said Netanyahu, "when a decision may carry a heavy price, but the price for not deciding would be heavier."
"I want to believe," he said, "we will always have the courage and resolve for the right decisions to safeguard our future and security."
Although he did not mention Iran, it was not hard to infer that the prime minister was referring to a decision to exercise Israel's military option against Iran's nuclear program in the face of crushing pressure from Washington and insistent advice of certain Israeli security veterans.
Defense minister Ehud Barak, who was standing behind the prime minister's shoulder, was as tense as a coiled spring.
3. Six hours later, Netanyahu dropped a bombshell on the domestic political scene: He announced his Likud party would hold elections, including primaries, before January 31, 2012 - two years before schedule and a year before Israel's next general election. As head of one of the most stable and long-lived coalition governments ever to have ruled Israel, he is under no pressing domestic need of a demonstration of leadership at this time.
4. In the last two weeks, the Netanyahu government has been subjected to acerbic criticism on the part of one Obama administration official after another. They have presented Israel as having fallen into the hands of right-wing extremists who are engaged in a mad race to suppress the judiciary and diminish the civil rights of women and children – not to mention Palestinians.
Secretary of State of Hillary Clinton went to unimaginable lengths when she likened Israel to Iran because fringe ultraorthodox group's in a couple of suburbs in Jerusalem and Bnei Brak were fighting for gender segregation on public transport against the government and the courts.
She was clearly aiming to undermine the Netanyahu government's democratic credentials - and therefore his moral legitimacy - for going to war to halt Iran's attainment of a nuclear weapon.
4. The unusually powerful US and Russian naval buildups in the waters around Syria and Iran.
Washington sought in late November to give the impression that the George H.W. Bush Carrier Strike Group was anchored off Marseilles, when it was spotted in the eastern Mediterranean opposite Syria.
Moscowthen rushed to Syria's defense by airlifting 72 anti-ship Yakhont missiles (Western-coded SSN-26) to Damascus. These water-skimming weapons can hit naval targets at a distance of 300 kilometers.
After that the Bush, whose freedom to approach Syrian or Lebanese shores, had been curtailed by the new weapon reaching Syria, departed to an unknown destination, while the USS Carl Vinson strike group took up position opposite Iran.
Moscowis also playing hide and seek with its only air carrier Admiral Kuznetsov. It was announced that the vessel would set sail for the Mediterranean on Dec. 6. But on Nov. 25, it was sighted passing Malta and chugging past Cyprus four days later on its way to join the flotilla of three Russian guided missile destroyers already anchored off Syria.
Neither the United States nor Russia would have concentrated two powerful fleets in the proximity of Syria and Iran unless they were certain a military conflagration was imminent. While any of the prime movers, Washington, Moscow, Tehran, Israel or Bashar Assad, may at the last moment step back from the brink of a regional war, at the moment, there is no sign of this happening.
Iran’s escalating conflict with Israel, Gulf states increases risk of war
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Reuters
Monday, Dec. 5, 2011
Analysis by Peter Apps
LONDON — Worries of Israel striking Iran might or might not be overblown but across the region the largely hidden “cold war” between Tehran and its enemies is escalating fast, bringing with it wider risk of conflict.
Speculation Israel might attack Iran’s nuclear programme has been rife in the Israeli media and oil markets in recent weeks, with concerns that Tehran might retaliate with devastating attacks on Gulf oil shipments.
But that debate, experts say, misses large parts of the bigger picture. An increasingly isolated Iran alarms not just Israel and the West but its Gulf neighbours, especially longtime foe Saudi Arabia, and they are already fighting back — and the confrontation goes well beyond simply tightening sanctions.
From proxy wars in Iraq and Syria to computer worm attacks and unexplained explosions in Iran — to allegations of an assassination plot in Washington — a confrontation once kept behind the scenes is breaking into increasingly open view.
The storming of Britain’s Tehran embassy last week — and the tit-for-tat shutdown of Iran’s embassy in London — were just the latest signs that already limited dialogue is beginning to break down. That, analysts say, is inherently dangerous.
“With Iran, you have a government that is increasingly isolated and acting in increasingly unpredictable ways,” says Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East programme at the Centre for Strategic and National Studies in Washington.
“There is certainly the risk that a country will take the deliberate decision to attack Iran. But there is also the risk that something happens that provokes… a war that nobody planned and nobody wants.”
With the euro zone crisis still far from over and worldwide demand already faltering, such action and the resulting oil price surge could be disastrous for the global economy.
Confrontation is, of course, far from new. Tehran has long used militant groups such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Hamas in the Palestinian territories to shape regional politics and strike enemies, particularly Israel.
The United States and Britain long accused Iran of using Shi’ite Muslim militias in Iraq to kill Western troops and impose Tehran’s agenda.
The Sunni-ruled states of the Gulf, particularly Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, say Iran stirs up unrest in their Shi’ite communities, although many Western analysts believe blaming Iran for protests this year in those countries is an overstatement or at least oversimplification.
Many such confrontations across the region appear escalating fast – and becoming much harder for Washington and its allies to control.
“U.S. and Western power in the region is weakening, and that is leaving a vacuum – most notably in Iraq – and you can see the main stakeholders in the region reacting to Iran’s readiness to fill that vacuum,” says Reva Bhalla, head of analysis at US private intelligence company Stratfor.
This year’s uprising in Syria – Iran’s rare Arab friend – has created a new battlefield. Since the early days of the uprising, U.S. officials repeatedly and pointedly said they believed Assad’s government was receiving support from Tehran.
Assad has since been rapidly abandoned by the Arab League, in a diplomatic effort led by Saudi Arabia and the other Sunni Arab Gulf states. Analysts and officials say that could have as much to do with pushing back against Iran as in reining in killings and rights abuses in Syria itself.
Saudi or other Arab backing for the increasingly armed opposition could escalate matters further, potentially producing a sectarian civil war lasting years and spilling across borders into neighbouring states.
In Iraq, the withdrawal of U.S. forces by the end of this year leaves more room for both Iran and Sunni Arab neighbours to intervene through proxy militias. At worst, that could reignite the Sunni-Shia infighting that nearly tore the country apart during the US occupation.
“A proxy Saudi-Iranian war in Iraq represents a very considerable threat to oil supplies,” said Alastair Newton, chief political analyst at Japanese bank Nomura.
Some of the increased friction with its neighbours could be a symptom of a power struggle within Iran itself, Newton said.
“I think one of the reasons you’re seeing temperature rising between Iran and others is because you’re seeing temperature rising in Tehran itself.”
Recent events such as the embassy storming, in which Iran seemed willing to tear up the international rulebook, could be a sign of increasing clout of hardline clerics and Revolutionary Guard commanders.
The attack on Britain’s embassy prompted widespread international condemnation and looks to have ushered in a much tighter sanctions. That too may strengthen the hardliners.
The United States said in October it had caught Iran plotting to blow up the Saudi ambassador to Washington DC in a downtown restaurant. Whether or not the plot was genuine – and whoever was behind it – it marked a further worsening of relations.
Iran’s enemies appear to be using unconventional methods against it, suspected of striking within its borders. Israel and the United States both make clear they view covert operations as a sensible alternative to conventional military action.
Last year’s Stuxnet computer worm, which damaged computers used in industrial machinery, was widely believed to have been a U.S.-Israeli attack to cripple Iranian nuclear centrifuges.
Several Iranian nuclear scientists have been killed or disappeared, and Iran blames U.S. or Israeli intelligence services.
Two explosions last month in Iran, one of which killed a Revolutionary Guards gunnery general and around a dozen other officers, prompted widespread speculation in Israel that its intelligence services were involved.
Iran said the first blast was an accident and has not given clear accounts of the second incident.
Israeli officials refuse to confirm or deny they were behind any specific incidents. Several commentators and newspapers warned such action could still backfire badly – perhaps prompting the kind of rocket attacks on Israel launched last week by Hizbollah from Lebanon.
“Faced with such operations, the Iranian regime is embarking on and will embark on a series of actions of its own,” said a front-page article in the Israeli newspaper Maariv by Nadav Eyal, foreign editor for Israel’s Channel Ten television.
As to whether a deliberate air strike on Iran’s nuclear program is genuinely more likely in the coming months, experts are divided. The U.S. withdrawal from Iraq makes it possible for Israeli jets to pass through its airspace without needing U.S. permission. But many say the costs would be too high.
“The problem is that no one knows what the mid-term consequences would be,” said Alterman at Washington’s Centre for Strategic and International Studies. “It could simply encourage the regime in place and intensify their commitment to following a nuclear program with even more energy than before.”
Time for diplomacy running out with ‘pariah state’ Iran: U.S. official
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Reuters
Monday, Dec. 5, 2011
By Jeremy Laurence
SEOUL — A senior U.S. official on Monday said the situation over Iran’s nuclear program was becoming increasingly worrying and an urgent diplomatic solution needs to be found.
The United States and Israel have not ruled out military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities if diplomacy fails to resolve a dispute over a program they suspect is aimed at developing atomic weapons.
Iran denies it is seeking nuclear weapons and says it would respond to any strike by attacking Israel and U.S. interests in the Gulf.
“Iran is violating international obligations and norms. It is becoming a pariah state,” Robert Einhorn, the State Department senior adviser for non-proliferation and arms control, told a news conference in the South Korean capital.
“The situation in Iran has become more and more worrisome. The timeline for its nuclear program is beginning to get shorter, so it is important we take these strong steps on an urgent basis.
“If we do not, pressures will grow for much stronger actions. The U.S. favours a diplomatic solution pressure, but if we cannot achieve a diplomatic solution soon, inevitably interests will grow in a different kind of solution. That is why we need to act soon.”
Iran’s nuclear ambitions, its claim to have shot down a U.S. spy drone in its airspace on Sunday and last week’s storming of the British embassy in Tehran by protesters has contributed to a sharp increase in tensions in the region.
He said enforcing sanctions would force Iran to negotiate seriously.
Western nations last week significantly tightened sanctions against Iran, with the European Union expanding an Iranian blacklist and the Senate passing a measure that could severely disrupt Iran’s oil income.
Einhorn said the latest round of sanctions do not include crude oil imports, crucial to energy-starved economies like South Korea.
“But we discourage countries from continuing to import crude oil in large quantities,” added Einhorn, acknowledging that at the present time “pressure was tight” on the oil market.
“We are conscious of energy security needs of countries like the Republic of Korea and don’t want to interfere with those needs,” he said, of Asia’s fourth largest economy.
Einhorn said he had received a positive response during talks with South Korean officials about tightening sanctions, adding Seoul was considering what additional measures to take.
© Thomson Reuters 2011
Iran will retaliate "outside its borders" for US drone, also blockade Hormuz
DEBKAfile Special Report December 4, 2011, 9:34 PM (GMT+02:00)
US RQ-170 stealth reconnaissance drone
Tehran quickly latched onto US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta's warning Friday, Dec. 2 that an Israeli strike at Iran's nuclear facilities would cause unpredictable results. Sunday, Iran issued two threats: to hit back beyond its borders for a US reconnaissance drone which its military claimed to have shot down in the near the border with Afghanistan and Pakistan and that an oil embargo on its exports would boost the price of oil to $250 a barrel.
This was another way of threatening a tit for tat in the form of a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, the most important oil channel in the world, and the transit of Saudi and Gulf oil. This was a reference to another of the US defense secretary's warning Friday that: "…any disruption of the free flow of commerce through the Persian Gulf is a very grave threat to all of us" and a red line for the US."
The unmanned aerial vehicle the Iranian military claimed in a report on English language Press TV to have shot down Sunday over the eastern part of the country was described in Tehran's statement was an RQ-170.
Iranian sources in Tehran report it was flying over the underground Fordo facility near Qom, where debkafile's military and intelligence sources uranium is being covertly enriched from 20 to 60 percent.
The Iranians did not say when the incident happened. However, some confusion set in when NATO command in Afghanistan later said a US unarmed reconnaissance aircraft flying over western Afghanistan had been missing since late last week.
The US RQ-170 drone is an unarmed, unmanned stealth aircraft equipped with the most advanced reconnaissance instruments for detecting nuclear weapons systems.
Our sources report that these spy planes operate over Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman and Turkey as well as Iran and Afghanistan.
The Iranian news agencies quoted senior Iranian officers as claiming the seized the drone which was downed with minimum damage. Their threat to retaliate outside Iran's borders for its alleged intrusion was not specific. It may well extend to embattled Syria to demonstrate that Iran keeps faith with its allies. Some Middle East military sources suggest that Iran might try to shoot down US drones over Turkey to warn Ankara to keep its hands off Syria. In the past week, Turkish leaders were again saying they had lost patience with Bashar Assad's brutality and intransigence and were close to sending troops across the border to establish a buffer zone in northern Syria for refugees and rebels.
Iran might also use its Lebanese pawn, Hizballah, to shoot down Israeli spy planes over that country's air space.
The foreign ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast in Tehran said Sunday that as soon as the United State and the West propose imposing an embargo on Iranian oil exports, "the price of oil will soar above $250 a barrel. Therefore, any attempt to strangle the Iranian economy by choking off its oil exports will be met by retaliation in kind, the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz to Saudi and Gulf oil.
Iran's Guards on war footing – London. Spy drone capture is US, Israel setback
DEBKAfile Special Report December 6, 2011, 6:56 AM (GMT+02:00)
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has placed the Revolutionary Guards on a war footing amid fears that the West and Israel are about to attack their nuclear program, the London Telegraph, which has good ties with British intelligence, reported early Tuesday, Dec. 6.
Monday, debkafile reported increasing indications that the Middle East is set for war, including an attack on Iran, between mid-December 2011 and mid-January 2012.
In obedience to Khamenei's directive to take all necessary measures to protect the regime, the Guards chief Gen. Mohammed Ali Jaafari has raised the operational readiness status of the country's forces in preparation for external strikes and covert attacks. He ordered Iran's arsenal of long-range Shahab missiles redistributed to secret sites around the country where they would be safe from enemy attack and could be used to launch retaliatory strikes; Guards units scattered to preset defense lines and air force "rapid reaction units" deployed after carrying out extensive exercises for responding to an enemy air attack on nuclear and strategic military targets.
Saturday, Dec. 3, Israel's defense minister Ehud Barak, when asked about a covert war against Iran, denied it was taking place. Twenty-hours later, this clandestine war peaked in a major coup for Iran, its capture of the sophisticated US RQ-170 Sentinel stealth reconnaissance drone. Tehran reported that, apart from slight damage, the aircraft was shot down complete with all its top-secret electronic systems in working condition.
An American military source confirmed that Iran had the RQ-170, but added there was "absolutely no indication the drone was shot down."
This leads to the conclusion that the Iranians were able to control the drone from a distance (over Afghanistan) and guide it across the border to land to Iran, say debkafile's military sources. The slight damage would then apply to the wings and may have been caused when it was brought in to land by an Iranian crew unused to handling an electronic warfare craft.
Our sources add that possession of the drone is more than just a major intelligence coup for Tehran; it has acquired an important military edge before any overt military operation has been launched. Western and Israeli war planners now have cause to fear that Iran has penetrated the heart of their most secret intelligence and electronic technological hardware for striking its nuclear infrastructure. If Tehran is capable of reaching out and guiding an American stealth drone into landing from a distance, it may also be able to control the systems of other aircraft, manned or unmanned.
This feat recalls Hizballah's surprise attack on an Israeli missile boat in the 2006 Lebanon war when its Chinese-made shore-to-ship C-802 missile was enabled by Iranian-manned coastal radar interference to override the ship's advanced electronic defense systems and so put the Israeli Navy out of action within range of the Lebanese coast.
According to an expert quoted by the Telegraph's senior military commentator Con Coughlin, the campaign of assassinations, cyber war and sabotage of recent weeks "looks like the 21st century form of war
Russia sends ship-killer missiles to Syria
by Staff Writers
Moscow (UPI) Dec 5, 2011
|
Russia, a key backer of the beleaguered regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, is reported to have delivered supersonic Yakhont SS-N-26 anti-ship cruise missiles to Damascus despite calls for a U.N. arms embargo on the regime.
The Russian Interfax news agency quoted an unidentified military source in Moscow as saying the 2007 contract, which reportedly involved at least two coastal-defense Bastion anti-ship systems with 72 Yakhonts, "was completely fulfilled, almost ahead of time."
The contract is worth an estimated $300 million.
Interfax noted that "this weapon allows coverage of the entire coastline of Syria from possible attacks from the sea."
It isn't known when the delivery was made. But Syria's acquisition of the Yakhont, which Russia calls the P-800, has caused considerable alarm in Israel.
The SS-N-26, with a range of 190 miles and a maximum speed of 1,900 miles an hour, carries a warhead of 440 pounds of high explosive, enough to sink a large warship.
The weapon's nearest U.S. counterparts, Raytheon's BGM-109 Tomahawk and Boeing's AGM-84 Harpoon, are subsonic. The best French equivalent, MBDA's MM-40 Exocet, only has a range of 45 miles.
The Russian delivery was carried out as Assad battles for survival against a 9-month-old uprising to topple his dictatorial regime in which his security forces have killed, by U.N. count, at least 4,000 people since mid-March.
While international pressure against the regime has steadily mounted as the bloodletting goes on, with some 950 people killed in November alone, Moscow has stood by its ally in Damascus.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov last week rejected U.N. calls for an arms embargo on Syria on charges of committing crimes against humanity. Lavrov said that a similar move against Libya had favored rebels opposed to Moammar Gadhafi, who toppled and killed him in a civil war.
Moscow has had close ties with Damascus and has been one of its main arms suppliers, as it was during the Soviet era. Syria is the largest buyer of Russian weapons in the Middle East. Moscow has arms contracts with Damascus worth at least $3 billion-$5 billion, the Russian RIA Novosti news agency reported.
The Yakhonts are likely to be deployed to protect a planned Russian naval base at the Syrian port of Tartous in the eastern Mediterranean. Russia has said it is sending the missile cruiser Admiral Kuznetsov and escort vessels to visit Tartous during an upcoming two-month Mediterranean tour.
That follows the deployment of the U.S. Navy's latest aircraft carrier, the USS George H.W. Bush, off the Syrian coast in recent days, and underlines Moscow's commitment to Syria.
The Tartous base, currently under construction by 600 Russian technicians, will be Russia's only military foothold in the region and has also caused consternation in Israel.
The Israelis say some of the Yakhonts could end up in the hands of Hezbollah, Iran's main proxy in Lebanon and a key Syrian ally.
While Middle East security experts say they doubt that, given the need to protect the Russians' base at Tartous, Syria has provided Hezbollah with thousands of missiles and rockets in recent years.
In the opening phase of the 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel, the Shiite movement seriously damaged an Israeli corvette off the Lebanese coast with a Chinese-designed C-801 missile provided by Iran via Syria.
Israeli military sources reported Saturday the Syrians test-fired missiles in the northeastern part of the country, including a Scud-B ballistic missile.
The Israelis deduced that the tests, broadcast on Syria's state television, were intended as a demonstration of the embattled regime's strength rather than to intimidate Israel.
There has been growing talk of a Libya-style multinational intervention in Syria in a bid to end the bloodletting. The tests were likely to warn off countries contemplating such action.
On Monday, former Israeli Chief of Staff Shaul Mofaz, now chairman of the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, warned that Assad could strike out at Israel if the pressure builds up on his regime.
"The closer the Assad regime in Syria gets to death's door, the greater the threat against Israel becomes," he declared.
"It can be reasonably assumed that in the twilight of his rule, Assad will try to deflect attention from the massacre of his own people by starting a conflict with Israel."
U.S. Watching Syrian Chemical Arms Amid Fear of Attack, Diversion
Monday, Dec. 5, 2011
By Rachel Oswald
Global Security Newswire
WASHINGTON -- The United States is quietly but closely monitoring the status of Syria’s large chemical weapons stockpile amid fears the regime of autocratic ruler Bashar Assad could use the warfare agents to quell continued political protests or divert the materials to extremist groups that operate in the region (see GSN, Sept. 6).
(Dec. 5) - A supporter of the Syrian government stands in front of a picture of President Bashar Assad on Friday. The United States is monitoring Syria's cache of chemical weapons amid concerns that warfare materials could be diverted to extremists or used against antigovernment protesters, officials said (AP Photo/Muzaffar Salman).
Government officials in Washington declined to discuss specifics of the monitoring operation or what intelligence resources were involved, citing the need to maintain secrecy about operational tactics. They acknowledged, though, that there is a great deal of concern in Washington over Syria’s chemical arsenal.
"It is extremely important that we maintain visibility on Syria’s chemical weapons and it is something that we as an intelligence community" are actively involved in doing, a U.S. intelligence official told Global Security Newswire.
A joint U.S.-Israeli surveillance campaign in Syria was first reported by the Wall Street Journal in late August. Since that time "it hasn’t diminished in importance at all," according to another U.S. official.
Both officials spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivities surrounding the intelligence operation.
The United States is believed to have prepared contingency plans for dealing with Syria’s toxic arsenal should it appear the regime is about to use the weapons or pass them to affiliated extremist organizations such as Hezbollah.
Syria is not a member of the Chemical Weapons Convention. It has also never publicly declared to the international community its chemical arsenal, which is understood to comprise hundreds of tons of nerve and blister agents, its doctrine for using such weapons or their exact capabilities. Still, Damascus’ status as a chemical weapons possessor is widely accepted as fact.
The Middle Eastern state is not known to have ever used those materials, which date back to the 1970s, according to information compiled by the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. Until now Damascus is believed by most analysts to have developed them as a deterrent to outside attack, namely from Israel, and not for use against its own people.
The Assad regime, though, has earned a reputation for brutality toward its own people. More than 4,000 Syrians have been killed in the political uprising that began this past spring, according to the United Nations. The rising body count has U.S. officials and analysts concerned that if the Syrian leadership feels besieged and without other options, it could revise its calculus on the use of chemical weapons against Syrian army defectors and protesters.
In the event that violence in the country escalates into a full-blown civil war, there would likely be an effort by opposition forces to gain control of the regime’s chemical weapon sites. A civil war would also likely increase the prospects of Assad ordering the use of his chemical armaments, according to Leonard Spector, deputy director of the James Martin Center.
"We are aware of the situation in Syria and continue to follow the events as they unfold," Pentagon spokeswoman Lt. Col. April Cunningham, said in a prepared statement. "The potential use of chemical weapons by any state poses a security threat to international security."
The chemical weapons surveillance campaign in Syria is not the only such effort the United States has been involved with this year. When Libyan civilians rose up in February against dictator Muammar Qadhafi’s decades-long rule, U.S. intelligence and defense officials used a variety of assets to keep tabs on the nation’s small stockpile of declared mustard blister agent.
The United States worked with NATO and Libyan opposition forces to establish a team of specialists that watched over Libya’s known chemical weapon facilities to deter government forces from seeking to use or divert chemical warfare materials, according to an Agence France-Presse report (see GSN, Nov. 2). Undeclared sites have also been identified as the Qadhafi regime was ousted.
The State Department also said it used "national technical means" to monitor Libya's chemical sites. National technical means are typically understood to encompass reconnaissance aircraft and satellites (see GSN, Aug. 25).
Obama administration officials would not disclose whether such technology is also being used to monitor Syria’s chemical-weapon sites on the grounds that revealing such details could jeopardize the integrity of the operation. Unlike in Libya, NATO and the United States have no internationally sanctioned mandate for military operations in Syria, nor do they have the relationships with Syrian opposition groups similar to those established with the Libyan rebels.
Syria’s chemical weapons program is considerably larger than Libya’s, which would presumably make monitoring it more of a challenge.
"This is a full-blown chemical weapons program not the remnants" of one as in Libya, Spector said. "You have large inventories ... there are a lot of people milling around the sites," presumably guarding them and managing day-to-day operations.
Syria’s chemical weapons program is understood to be comprised of four production facilities at al-Safira, Hama, Homs and Latakia, along with two munitions storage sites at Khan Abu Shamat and Furqlus. Additionally, there is a chemical weapons research laboratory near Damascus, according to Michelle Dover of the James Martin Center.
"You’re also looking at a program that is almost completely self-sufficient from the research and production through the storage and weaponization," said Dover, citing open source information dating back to the 1980s.
The Assad regime is thought to possess between 100 and 200 Scud missiles carrying warheads loaded with sarin nerve agent. The government is also believed to have several hundred tons of sarin agent and mustard gas stockpiled that could be used in air-dropped bombs and artillery shells, according to information compiled by the James Martin Center.
"We do not have any information that suggests there have been changes to the security of Syria’s chemical weapons stockpile," a State Department official said in an e-mail to GSN. "Syria is a country of significant proliferation concern, so we monitor its chemical weapons activities very closely. We will continue to work closely with like-minded countries to limit proliferation to Syria’s chemical weapons program. We believe Syria’s chemical weapons stockpile, composed of nerve agents and mustard gas, remains under Syrian government control."
Damascus is a well-known backer of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, which both base their headquarters in the Syrian capital. Syria is also a supporter of Hezbollah and last year was accused by Israel of providing Scud ballistic missiles to the Lebanese militant group (see GSN, April 29, 2010).
Noting reporting on contingency plans prepared by the Pentagon for military operations to prevent militants from obtaining Pakistani nuclear weapons, Spector said it was reasonable to extrapolate that preparations have also been made to respond to crisis situations involving Syria’s chemical arms.
Such events might include the Assad regime preparing its chemical arsenal for an air attack on protesters and army defectors or the weakening of security around the chemical sites. The details of presumed action plans are a closely held secret.
"It would seem illogical to think that Pentagon has not brainstormed contingency plans," Spector said.
Spector said he believes the United States has “definitely” issued backdoor diplomatic threats to Damascus of serious consequences should Assad order chemical weapon attacks on opposition activists. "I’m sure that message has been conveyed."
Though Washington is concerned about the potential chemical weapons threat, it is not the Obama administration’s primary focus in dealing with Syria, according to the issue expert. "I think they have still more urgent items that are constantly on top of the agenda" such as persuading the Arab League to pass sanctions against the regime and pushing for Assad to step down, he said.
A key factor in U.S. contingency thinking is thought to be what actions Israel could unilaterally take if it feels a chemical weapons attack or proliferation is imminent, Spector said.
Israel in June 2007 mounted a sneak aerial attack on a Syrian site at Dair Alzour that it suspected housed an unfinished atomic reactor with military applications (see GSN, March 31, 2008).
A crucial element of any potential Israeli calculus on striking against Syria’s chemical assets would be identifying the exact location of the weapons, Spector said.
"You have a lot of sites [in Syria] and not all of them may be known and you really have to do a lot of work, you really have to get everything," Spector said.
Also likely weighing on Israeli and U.S. thinking is whether an attack on Syria’s chemical arsenal could backfire by pushing opposition forces to rally around Damascus in response to a foreign attack, Spector said. "You don’t want to create an environment where the country rallies around the government because they face an external attack."
The Israeli Embassy in Washington did not respond to requests for comment by press time.
Iran claims its experts almost done recovering data from captured U.S. drone
December 12, 2011 14:12:00
Nasser Karimi
Associated Press
TEHRAN, IRAN—Iranian experts are in the final stages of recovering data from the U.S. surveillance drone captured by the country’s armed forces, state TV reported Monday.
Tehran has flaunted the capture of the RQ-170 Sentinel, a top-secret aircraft with stealth technology, as a victory for Iran and a defeat for the United States in a complicated intelligence and technological battle.
President Barack Obama said Monday that the U.S. was pressing Iran to return the aircraft, which U.S. officials say malfunctioned and was not brought down by Iran. But a senior commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said on Sunday that the country would not send it back, adding that “no one returns the symbol of aggression.”
Iranian lawmaker Parviz Sorouri, a member of the parliament’s national security and foreign policy committee, said Monday the extracted information will be used to file a lawsuit against the United States for what he called the “invasion” by the unmanned aircraft.
Sorouri also claimed that Iran has the capability to reproduce the drone through reverse engineering, but he did not elaborate.
State TV broadcast images Thursday of Iranian military officials inspecting what it identified as the drone. Iranian state media have said the unmanned spy aircraft was detected and brought down over the country’s east, near the border with Afghanistan.
Officers in the Revolutionary Guard, Iran’s most powerful military force, have claimed the country’s armed forces brought down the surveillance aircraft with an electronic ambush, causing minimum damage to the drone.
American officials have said that U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that Iran neither shot the drone down, nor used electronic or cybertechnology to force it from the sky. They contend the drone malfunctioned. The officials spoke anonymously in order to discuss the classified program.
U.S. officials are concerned others may be able to reverse engineer the chemical composition of the drone’s radar-deflecting paint or the aircraft’s sophisticated optics technology that allows operators to positively identify terror suspects from tens of thousands of feet in the air.
They are also worried adversaries may be able to hack into the drone’s database, although it is not clear whether any data could be recovered. Some surveillance technologies allow video to stream through to operators on the ground but do not store much collected data. If they do, it is encrypted.
Separately, in comments to the semi-official ISNA news agency, Sorouri said Iran would soon hold a navy drill to practice the closure of the strategic Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, which is the passageway for about 40 per cent of the world’s oil tanker traffic.
Despite Sorouri’s comments and past threats that Iran could seal off the waterway if the U.S. or Israel moved against Iranian nuclear facilities, no such exercise has been officially announced.
“Iran will make the world unsafe” if the world attacks Iran, Sorouri said.
Both the U.S. and Israel have not rule out military option against Iran’s controversial nuclear program, which the West suspects is aimed at making atomic weapons. Iran denies the charge, saying its nuclear activities are geared toward peaceful purposes like power generation.
In another sign of the increasing tensions between Iran and the U.S., Tehran said Monday it has asked Interpol to help seek the arrest of two former U.S. officials it accuses of supporting the assassinations of Iranian officials.
Iran’s state prosecutor, Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejehei, told reporters that Iran has filed charges against retired U.S. Army Gen. Jack Keane and former CIA agent Reuel Marc Gerecht.
Ejehei said Iran sent a request to Interpol in Paris to help pursue the two Americans through its office in Washington.
Iran says the two men urged the Obama administration to use covert action against Iran and kill some of its top officials, including Brig. Gen. Ghassem Soleimani commander of the Quds Force, the special foreign operations unit of the Revolutionary Guard.
Peter Goodspeed: ‘Too late’ to halt Iran from getting nuclear weapon
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Peter Goodspeed, National Post
Monday, Dec. 12, 2011
Though it many be years before Iran becomes an overt nuclear weapon state, Tehran “is already close enough to obtaining a nuclear weapon to be considered a de facto nuclear country,” says a new study by the Washington-based Nonproliferation Policy Education Centre.
Using data released last month by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on Iran’s enriched uranium stockpiles and UN reports on Iran’s recent non-nuclear weapons research, U.S. weapons expert Gregory Jones said, “Iran is a de facto nuclear weapon state [and] there is little that can be done except to hope [to] maintain control over their nuclear weapons.”
“If Iran were to now make an all-out effort to acquire nuclear weapons, it could probably do so in two to six months,” he said.
“However, given the ineffectiveness of Western counteraction thus far, Iran has no need to make such an all-out effort. Rather Iran will probably continue on its current course, producing an ever growing stockpile of enriched uranium and carrying out additional research to produce non-nuclear weapons components.”
The study says Iran is on the brink of tripling production of 19.7% enriched uranium that can be rapidly refined to weapons’ grade.
“Using Iran’s currently operating centrifuges at the [Natanz] Fuel Enrichment Plant, the batch recycling (to make weapons grade enriched uranium) would take about two months,” Mr. Jones said.
If Iran has an as-yet undetected clandestine nuclear enrichment facility, it might be able to speed that process up.
The report notes IAEA inspectors believe Iran has been working secretly with a Russian weapons scientists, identified as Vyacheslav Danilenko, to develop a sophisticated “multipoint” nuclear trigger for a bomb and is “now in a position to build nuclear weapons that are significantly lighter and have a smaller diameter.
Smaller, lighter weapons would allow Iran to place nuclear bombs on the warheads of medium- and long-range ballistic missiles.
“In light of the IAEA’s information about Iran’s efforts to develop nuclear weapons and in particular, Iran’s acquisition of a multipoint initiations system from a Russian nuclear scientist, it is clear that Iran is well on its way to developing nuclear weapons,” the study says.
Mr. Jones estimates it will take “between two and six months before Iran could have the non-nuclear components for a nuclear weapon ready for use.”
But he says missile deliverability is not a necessary requirement for any Iranian nuclear weapon.
“There are other viable means for Iran to be able to deliver a nuclear weapon,” the study says. “Unfortunately, vehicle delivery of bombs [up to now all conventional] has become quite common in the region and many such attacks have been carried out.”
Mr. Jones’ report was released just as the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy (AEI) published a report that concludes, “There is a real chance that Western efforts to stop Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon will fail.”
The conservative Washington think-tank spent six months studying Iran’s nuclear threat. It says any serious U.S. policy on Iran must operate on the assumption Iran will become a full-fledged nuclear power by 2013.
Days after he was elected, Barack Obama, the U.S. President, declared a nuclear Iran was unacceptable. He has repeatedly pledged “to use all elements of American power to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.”
Now, U.S. analysts seem to be pivoting away from a policy of deterrence to one of containment.
But the AEI study warns “containment is hardly a cost-free policy” and says “little thought has gone into what an effective containment and deterrent regime will require of the United States and its allies.”
Any coherent containment policy “should seek to block any Iranian expansion in the Persian Gulf,” “induce a retraction of Iranian influence” and “work toward a political – if not physical – transformation of the Tehran regime,” it adds.
That could require “a constant and significant conventional force presence around Iran’s perimeter.”
But with pending budget cuts and U.S. military drawdowns in the Middle East, Washington may not be in a position to conduct a full-fledged containment operation against Iran, the AEI warns.
“Consider the military costs alone: a renewed offensive nuclear deterrent, both in the United States and extended to the region; prolonged counterintelligence, counterterrorist and counterinsurgency operations around Iran’s perimeter; a large and persistent conventional covering force operating throughout the region and a reinforcing force capable of assured regime change; and energetic military-to-military programs with coalition partners,” the report says.
“Such a deterrent posture is not only near or beyond the limits of current U.S. forces, but also would certainly surpass the capabilities of the reduced U.S. military that proposed budget cuts would produce.”
National Post
Iran to practice Strait of Hormuz closure while unlocking US drone secrets
DEBKAfile Special Report December 12, 2011, 6:10 PM (GMT+02:00)
Iranian warships September exercise near Hormuz
Bigheaded from capturing the US stealth RQ-170 Sentinel drone, Tehran Monday, Dec. 12 announced plans to conduct a navy drill son for practicing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the most important oil transit channel in the world for 40 percent of its fuel. Iranian lawmaker Parviz Sorouri, member of the Majlis national security committee, who announced the drill said, "Iran will make the world unsafe if the world attacks Iran."
On Dec. 12, US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta called Iran "a very grave threat to all of us" and warned that any Iranian disruption of the free flow of commerce through the Persian Gulf "is a red line" for the United Sates.
Tehran's announcement of a navy drill in Hormuz augments the Syrian ruler Bashar Assad's mantra since his people rose up against him nine months ago, that an attack on his regime would start a regional blaze.
The Iranian lawmaker spoke at length about how his government planned to use the military and intelligence software mined from the top-secret US UAV on Dec. 4.
He said Iranian engineers and technicians were "in the final stages of "cracking" the drone's secret technology, although he did not say when this research would be complete. "Our next action will be to reverse-engineer the aircraft," he said and boasted: "In the near future will be able to mass produce it. Iranian engineers will soon build an aircraft superior to the American one."
This data would also be used, the Iranian lawmaker said, in a lawsuit against the United State for the "invasion" by the unmanned aircraft. Sorouri did not say where the lawsuit would be filed but Tehran is thought to be preparing an complaint to the international war crimes court at the Hague.
debkafile's Iranian and military sources note that the linkage Sorouri made between the capture of the RQ-170 and the naval drill in the Strait of Hormuz was intended to inform Washington that Tehran in possession of the drone no longer fears the ability of the naval air carriers the US has deployed in the Persian Gulf to prevent its closure of the strategic waterway.
In the last six months, Adm. Habibollah Sayyari has emphasized more than once that the Iranian Navy which he commands is master of the Persian Gulf and dominates the Strait of Hormuz. After trapping the American stealth drone, Iran is mounting a challenge to the warning issued by Panetta and testing the resolve of Washington and the Saudi-led Gulf Arab region to contest the Hormuz drill.
Mere verbal protest will not serve. It will just leave Tehran crowing over its possession of the US drone as the key to the military and intelligence mastery of the Persian Gulf waters and the ability to make US back down. However a real threat by the US and Gulf oil powers to stop the drill by force will send regional tensions shooting up.
In the meantime, Saeed Jalili, head of Iran's National Security Council has arrived in Moscow to clinch a deal for the transfer of drone secrets to Russia in return for nuclear technology and sophisticated military hardware.
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